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(above): Edgar Bright- shown here taking a beating up a weight class from Wadsworth's Kagan Squire- will be one of the main keys to the Eagles Chances of Repeating. Photo Credit- Bob Tuneberg, Villager News

So instead of relinquishing their title, the Eagles made a mockery of my projection and cruised to a 20 point win, while Wadsworth fell all the way to 5th place. While the label “choke-job” was immediately thrown out there- in hindsight, in most of these matches Wadsworth was simply not favored or it was a tossup. The exception was Brad Squire- but between injury and illness, let’s just say that if this young man were a racehorse instead of a wrestler they would have shot him. In summary, the Grizzlies had a lot of very good but not great wrestlers who had just reached the limit of their ability to advance at that point in their careers.

After the tournament, I thought that Wadsworth was a shoe-in for the state title this year. After all, they returned every state qualifier from that team except Alex Gray.

And then, the tide shifted the other way. Enter Dean Heil, Edgar Bright and Dominic Abounader. Heil was a well-known commodity as a junior high state champion with awesome youth credentials, and while Bright and Abounader where somewhat known as well, the ascendancy of these wrestlers was not foreseen at the beginning of this season. Both wrestlers were backups at the start of year, and behind wrestlers who were “borderline” to qualify for state. However, at state duals, both of these young athletes suddenly burst into the lineup and now look like mid-placers at the state tournament. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies at Wadsworth were wrestling great as expected, but St. Edward’s additions of Bright and Abounader seemed to tip the balance of power in their favor.

And then things changed again, when the draws came out on Sunday. After state I’d like to take a trip to Vegas with Wadsworth Coach John Gramuglia and bet on whatever he bets on- luck like this belongs at the Roulette Wheel, not on the wrestling mat. You simply couldn’t design better bracket placements than the Grizzlies have. First of all, they have their guys that maybe shouldn’t be quite good enough to win state titles in weights that are unbelievably barren of top level talent to the point that they are the possible champions (see 189 and 285), and in at least two other situations, they find themselves in a situation where Wadsworth has probably the 3rd or 4th best guy in the weight, but the other top guys are all on the other side (135,140). The following is a weight by weight breakdown of both the individual contest and team race.

1. George Dicamillo
2. Jack Young
3. Dean Heil (St. Edward)
4. Austin Marsico
5. Nick Garica
6. Corey Selmon
7. Nick Montgomery
8. Sonny Shump

Jack Young is certainly Wadsworth’s favorite Russian wrestler these days. Young’s upset of George Dicamillo at Districts Sunday put their freshman superstar Dean Heil in the same bracket as Dicamillo, setting up a semifinal that will be a rematch of an Ironman final (after both wrestlers dominated a field of nationally ranked competitors). Of course Dicamillo won that match (albeit in overtime tiebreakers), and it’s my understanding that he has several previous wins over Heil and has never lost to him. This match will be one of those great battles between a takedown artist (Dicamillo) and a superb mat wrestler (Heil- see his tech fall over #4 Garcia at Districts). Honestly, I think that this one is a true tossup, but even if Heil can beat Dicamillo he will not be a shoe-in. With a Friday Night weigh-out, Jack Young will be HUGE for 103 on Saturday Night in the finals (he competed at 112 last year and this year until tournament time).

Wadsworth’s Brandon Jones qualified here but I think he will be a non-factor. Jones has the underrated District Champion Marsico in the first round, and even if he can beat Walsh of Moeller in the first round consolations (a tossup) he will have returning placer Selmon in placement round, a match he has almost no chance of winning. I have Selmon projected 6th because the weight is tough and his draw is bad, but this is a wrestler who beat Dicamillo last season, so I cannot see Jones beating him.

1. Stephen Myers
2. Mitch Newhouse
3. Kory Mines
4. Edgar Bright (St. Edward)
5. Anthony Collica
6. Alfredo Gray (Wadsworth)
7. Shawn Ague
8. Cobey Fehr

If Jack Young is Wadsworth’s District hero, then Anthony Collica is St. Edward’s. Collica scored an even bigger upset than Young when the freshman beat defending state champion and 2x state finalist Kory Mines. That upset paved the way for another superstar freshman, Edgar Bright of St. Edward, to possibly make the finals. Bright literally exploded into the Eagles lineup in late January by nearly defeating the #1 ranked 112 in the entire nation in the Blair Dual, giving the otherwise untouchable Evan Silver a real scare in an 8-7 loss in which he threw Silver to his back. Since then, Bright has yet to lose at the 112 lb. weight class. He seems to be getting better every week, and is the master of winning the close ones against quality wrestlers- as shown by his consecutive wins over highly regarded Gray, Griffith, and Fehr this weekend (all three qualified). However, my pick by the narrowest of margins to advance to the finals is one of the most improved wrestlers in the state- Mitch Newhouse of Perry. A year ago, Newhouse wasn’t even in serious contention for state qualification out of that legendary Perry District 103 lb. weight class, now he’s a likely finalist. He has a clear path to the semis and I think he has at least a 50-50 chance against Bright. All this assumes that Bright can get past Shawn Ague- and this is far from certain. Ague was 5th at this weight last year and although he took just 4th at his District (barely qualifying) he truly makes it a three-man horse race out of the upper half-bracket.

Bright advancing to the finals may be one of the single biggest keys in the team race. Should he lose in the semis (or in the first round), he would fall into a consolation bracket that will be host of wrestlers who are every bit as good as him. At best, he probably falls to 4th (with the Myers/Mines loser taking 3rd) and at worst, he loses to Collica/Ague and/or Gray/Fehr and takes 5th or 6th. I see Alfredo Gray of Wadsworth likely taking 6th here- losing to Collica in the first round but rebounding with two consolations wins to place and then likely prevailing over arch-rival Fehr. On the other hand, there is so much parity here, one could easily see him as high as 4th - or not placing at all (way to cover my bases, right?).

The bottom half of the bracket features the most brilliant freshman of a great group- Stephen Myers of Moeller- against state champion Mines, presuming Myers can get past Collica. Myers wrestled about a half-dozen matches against nationally ranked opponents between Ironman and Powerade- and went about 50-50 in those matches, including a win over cadet national champion Joey Dance. Since then, he has dominated all Ohio foes. Mines has not been quite the force one might guess- losing to John Dillon when both were 119 and also to Collica- but he certainly has the ability to win here. Whoever emerges from this titanic semifinal showdown will be an overwhelming favorite to win on Saturday Night.

1. Jerome Robinson
2. Kagan Squire (Wadsworth)
3. Davion Caston
4. Uland Ralston
5. Mike Labry
6. Jerry Pasquale
7. Angelo Disabato
8. Max Byrd

It’s a two-man horse race here between Jerome Robinson and Kagan Squire. Defending State Champion Robinson is currently 2-0 against Cadet National Champ Squire, and there is little reason to think that the counter-wrestling and funk of Squire can best the speed and power of takedown artist Robinson based on their previous matches. On the other hand, I’ve seen the explosive Robinson make mental errors in the past when forced to scramble- which is obviously Squire’s game- so perhaps there is hope for Squire after all. If Squire can pull the upset- obviously, that would be a huge bonus for Wadsworth in the ream race. That said, in my view the 3rd and 4th best wrestlers in this weight are Caston and Ralston, and both are on Robinson’s side of the bracket, meaning that Squire is almost a sure-fire finalist.

(above): St. Edward will count on 2008 state champ Gus Sako to win his second state title.

1. Gus Sako (St. Edward)
2. Jake McCombs
3. Jake Corrill
4. Nick McSorley
5. Nick Hannon
6. John Dillon
7. Tywan Claxton
8. Tyler Weiskettel

Even with Nick Lawrence out with an unfortunate injury and Cody Shivener moving to 130 (he was at 125 briefly early in the year), this is a dynamite weight class- the best in Division I this year in my view. There are eight former state placewinners here even with state placer Marzec being eliminated at Districts and Lawrence injured. The conventional wisdom is that Gus Sako is a lock- and he certainly has been dynamite since dropping to 125- but nevertheless, I think that Jake McCombs may be able to give Sako a tougher battle than many realize. In fact, the top three challengers to Sako at this weight are a combined 96-2, with one of those losses being to another of that top group (McSorley suffered his first loss at the hands of Corrill last weekend).

Closed behind, but perhaps less consistent, are the dangerous quartet of state placers Nick Hannon, John Dillon, Dan McNulty, and Narcisco Inchaurregui. And then, there is the newcomer- one of the state’s most improved wrestlers- Tywan Claxton of Brush. Claxton already has wins over Incharregui (also a loss) and McNulty (twice). Perhaps the worst draw in the state in all 42 weights is co-held by Claxton and Inchaurregui. Whoever wins their first round battle will have to beat Corrill, McCombs, and Sako to win a title, and the loser should have either Nick Hannon or Nick McSorley in his placement match. McNulty has been 5th and 4th the past two years, but projects to not even place based on the fact that he has Sako in the quarters and Dillon in his placement match (presuming Dillon loses to McCombs). I think that Dillon and Hannon in particular have the potential to play spoiler to one of the big guns at this weight.

McCombs in particular has been brilliant this year. A state qualifier as a freshman at 112, he has improved steadily every year like so many in the Marysville program- leading to a third place finish last year. This year he is unbeaten and has yet to be seriously pushed- which is why I think Sako will beat him- he is more battle-tested. However, if you don’t think that McCombs has a shot to beat Sako, consider this- last year McCombs beat Nate Skonieczny at Brecksville. Skonieczny of course beat Sako this year, as well as winning the Ironman weight where Sako placed 7th. I think that McCombs is a bit better on his feet, but Sako is better on the mat. This should be one of the best finals on Saturday Night- again, assuming that both make the finals which is not a given in this weight.

1. Jamie Clark (St. Edward)
2. Cody Shivener
3. Ryan Hoyt
4. Drew Hammer
5. Michael Carlone
6. Matt Hammer
7. Jay Kunzi
8. Andrew Taylor

By contrast, this is one of the most predictable weights (though far from the toughest) weight in all of Division I. Jamie Clark seems to have his A-Game back after a rocky mid-season comeback from injury, and there is nobody here who can touch him. Hoyt and Shivener may have the ability to hold Clark to a decision, but they won’t come close to beating him. Hoyt in my view is the 2nd best guy, but his inexplicable lopsided loss to Clark landed him on the same side of the bracket as the St. Edward superstar. Shivener may finally somewhat fulfill the potential we all saw in him at Junior High States back in 2007- where he torched a tough field and looked to be one of the state’s very best prospects in the class of 2011. Somehow he has never really clicked the way we thought he might (even his freshman year he was ranked 4th at 119, yet to date his highest state placement is 8th), but perhaps he will push Clark harder than many expect and become a dominant force his senior season.

Weights like this demonstrate a primary difficult of Wadsworth overtaking St. Edward- bonus points. Their stars- notably Clark, Sulzer, Sako, and Heil- score pins and techs in bunches. Wadsworth, by contrast, has a lot of guys like Ball, Wenger, Busson, and Buzzelli who are more control wrestlers and thus score few bonus points against anyone who is good enough to get to Columbus (Louden Gordon being the exception). Even the bona fide stars like the Squire brothers score less bonus than other wrestlers of comparable ability.

1. Shawn Fayette
2. Louden Gordon (Wadsworth)
3. Ty Davis
4. Zach Dailey
5. Francis Colarco
6. Tyler Riegel
7. Mark Martin (St. Edward)
8. Austin Sams

Tyler Riegel turned a seemingly predictable weight class on its head with his 12-11 Distrct stunner over the generally upset-proof defending state champion Shawn Fayette (this was Fayette’s only loss to an in-state wrestler who was not a state champion since his sophomore year). The result of this upset was that the three wrestlers who seemingly stand head and shoulders above the field- Fayette, Ty Davis, and Zach Dailey- are all on the same side of the bracket.

Yet again, John Gramuglia seems to have some good Karma- or perhaps just an undoing of his bad karma from last year’s “Black Friday” debacle- as the 4th best wrestler in the weight class, Louden Gordon is likely to advance to the finals in the weaker half-bracket. Gordon may be the heir-apparent to Tony Jameson and Kyle Lang as the most entertaining wrestler in the state- often trading five point moves as casually as a takedown artist yields escapes- but this year he has eliminated the inconsistency that plagued him last year, and since a disappointing showing at Ironman (albeit with a very tough draw) he’s been on fire, getting better every week it seems. His road to the finals will not be an easy one, with Francis Colarco in his quarterbracket (the 5th best guy here in my view) and Riegel in the semis both posing a serious threat. 2008 state placer Colarco was hampered by injury last year, but has been very dominant this year, though he did lose to Gordon earlier this year 3-1. Riegel’s win over Fayette is a head-scracher- he’s been a quality performer his entire career, but nothing indicated an ability to beat a wrestler like Fayette. Thus, my guess is that Gordon is your finalist.

Another interesting possibility here is Jake Sage. Sage came out of nowhere last year to place 4th in the state at 125 lbs., and then promptly surfaced all the way up at 145 and 152 this year. Now, he is at 135, which means that he had to be weighing in at 140 and wrestling up for the competition, even at Brecksville. Very unorthodox, but I like it. That said, Sage has not shown the results that indicates anything more than a low placement would be forthcoming even with a good draw- and presuming he loses to Colarco in the first round, he would have either Dailey or Fayette in his placement match- so suffice it to say that the Sage/Colarco bout will be one of the most important of the first round.

In the other half bracket, the top three all lock horns and my thinking is that Zach Dailey and Ty Davis have closed the gap on Fayette in what should be a virtual dead heat. No District champ has a worse draw than the technically-brilliant sophomore Dailey- he will need to beat two state finalists just to make the finals. My guess is Fayette steps it up and gets that title, but Dailey and Davis will be hungry for their first state title and can absolutely upset him.

Mark Martin represents St. Edward, and it’s safe to say that his District Final loss to Gordon (third loss to him this season) really stings as he looks at the pairings. I am very impressed with the sophomore Martin and could see him placing as high as 5th with the right draw, but he certainly does not have that draw. Assuming he loses to Ty Davis, he will face the loser of Dailey and Fayette in the consolation quarters, meaning 7th is pretty much the best he can do. Look for Martin to be in the title hunt next year, however.

140 LBS: OWS Projected Placements
1. Robert Shepherd
2. Nate Ball (Wadsworth)
3. Shane Foster
4. Randy Languis
5. Kyle Marrone
6. Matt Van Curen (St. Edward)
7. Devon Range
8. Connor Dempsey

Here again, the wrestling gods seem to favor the Grizzlies. Nate Ball has had a great season but does not seem to me to be quite finalist caliber in Division I, and yet a combination of a weak weight class and a terrific draw should make him exactly that. Meanwhile, Matt Van Curen of St. Edward- almost as good as Ball but a loser to him in the District Final- is in danger of not even placing. I have Van Curen losing in the quarterfinals to #2 Shane Foster, and then in his placement round match, losing to the loser of by far the toughest first round bout at this weight, Kyle Marrone vs. Craig McIntyre. McIntyre is a guy I am having a tough time figuring exactly where he fits. He was up and down at 145, but since dropping to the much more forgiving 140 lb. weight, he has been excellent, with his only loss being in overtime at the hands of state champion Shepherd. I am taking Van Curen, but at one point I had down McIntyre as the winner before changing my mind. For Van Curen, it’s a game of inches this weekend- he could end up top four, or he could just as easily end up as a non-placer (yet again covering my bases it seems).

Ball of course was a state qualifier last year at 145 and moved down a weight to 140 this year with vastly improved results. Ball is sort of the anti-Gordon: while his 135 pound teammate has a high-flying crowd-pleasing style, Ball is just damn near impossible to score on and can get the takedown he needs to win against almost anyone. On a very tough schedule, he only has one disappointing loss- and that was very early in the year (to Kardasz of Lexington). I think that steadiness, ability to win low-scoring bouts, and probably most of all, being much more battle hardened than the other top guns in his half-bracket will make all the difference. In addition, the fact that he was able to hang with a national-caliber superstar like Cam Tessari at Brecksville impresses me- and it’s something that I don’t think anyone else in his bracket could do.

While I project Ball to advance to the finals, it is far from a sure thing. Kyle Marrone comes in at a sparkling 31-1, albeit on a highly suspect schedule. He has beaten a couple of fellow state qualifiers (notably Connor Dempsey) but that doesn’t lead me to conclude that he will beat Nate Ball. Randy Languis is a 2x state placer (7th as a sophomore and 8th as a junior) but to me, Languis is a guy who maybe reached a plateau his sophomore year. I see Ball winning by a point against both.

Defending state champion Robert Shepherd seemed like a shoe-in at this weight at the start of the season- now, I’m not so sure. While Shepherd has gone unbeaten, he has struggled at times with close wins over lesser competition- most recently at Districts, with the overtime win over McIntyre and a 7-5 win over the unheralded Presley- hardly Taylor-esque domination (or Stieber-esque if you prefer). If Ball- being absolutely huge on Saturday night- could upset him, that would obviously be huge for Wadsworth, but Shepherd has a history of performing in the Schott (see freshman year upset of Dan Genetin- the projected champion of many that year- and last year’s state title run).

1. Brad Squire (Wadsworth)
2. Anthony Salupo (St. Edward)
3. Jerrell Valiant
4. Tyler Giffin
5. Kyle Roddy
6. Kenny Locsei
7. Kyle McIntyre
8. Tyler Luft

The Ashland District towers over what is an incredibly thin field. Frankly, the only wrestler outside of Ashland who has been impressive this year is Tyler Giffin of Harrison. Locsei and Green are quality wrestlers, but not exactly the caliber you would expect to see from Division I District Champions in a typical year. In fact, there was a better wrestler left behind at the Medina SECTIONAL than either of these District Champions (Benson of Nordonia, who just a few weeks ago beat three state placers to win the Bill Dies). I think that all four Ashland qualifiers will advance to the semis.

As might be expected, this one is pretty predictable. Salupo was the best 135 in the state last year in my view, but it was not to be as he was reversed to his back in the final :20 by Scott Mattingly. Brad Squire’s story is well-known. Unbeaten state champ as frosh, runner-up to Horner as a sophomore in an overtime epic that concluded a great rivalry, he was hampered by a knee injury and illness last year at state- frankly, it was almost disturbing to watch him wrestle last year knowing how good he could be if healthy. Now he’s 100%, and has lost only to the #1 wrestler in the nation and would be the “Comeback Player of the Year” if there were such a title in Ohio Wrestling. From their prior matches, it seems that Salupo’s offensive firepower simply does not match up well with Squire’s defensive genius- thus far, Salupo has seemingly done all the work while Squire has scored all the points. Obviously, if Salupo can solve Brad Squire that would be huge for St. Edward’s in the team race, but I just don’t see it.

After the top five here, this weight class is much like throwing darts- the parity is just incredible, if parity can be incredible that is.

1. Pierce Harger
2. David Habat
3. Waquiem Comar
4. Dominic Abounader (St. Edward)
5. Clay Wenger (Wadsworth)
6. Bryan Matthews
7. Sam Conners
8. Kyle Bryant

This weight looked like one of the state’s marquee fields at the start of the year, with state champion David Habat (a legitimate title contender every year since he was a freshman 135), Pierce Harger (a three-time placer who has beaten too many state finalists to count but has never quite reached his full potential at state), and Waquiem Comar (a funky wrestler and great athlete who has twice placed in the top four at state) all vying for the title. The weight class has lost some of its luster, as Habat got off to a terrible start after Ironman (5th at Brecksville, losing to Walters at CIT), Comar was beaten by Chaz McGrain (#5 ranked wrestler who failed to advance from the loaded Ashland District), and Harger had a somewhat disappointing Ironman and then promptly lost to a freshman from Pennsylvania at Powerade (albeit an excellent freshman). However, all three seem to be in top form as we head to Columbus and this one should live up to its billing after all.

My choice is the Senior Pierce Harger. Yes, I realize he lost to Habat both times they met last year, but I think that nobody can possibly have this much bad luck in one career and he is due for a banner performance at state. Moreover, I think he’s hungrier for a title than Habat- who quite frankly looked like he would rather be performing hard labor in a Soviet Gulag in Siberia than on a wrestling mat at Brecksville this year. By contrast, Harger is a hard-nosed, hard-working kid who must be laser-focused on capturing that elusive title. First Harger will have to get through Comar in the semis, however. The funk of Comar could frustrate Harger, but at the end of the day, I think he’s just too solid to lose this match.

This weight will also be a huge factor in the team race. I can’t see either Abounader of St. Edward or Wenger of Wadsworth beating the top three (though Wenger did beat Habat at Brecksville and will have the chance to do it again in the quarterfinal and Abounader lost by a point to Comar at state duals), but both have favorable consolation draws if everything goes “according to hoyle” that should ensure that they definitely place, the only question being how high. In my view, they are the 4th and 5th best wrestlers in this weight class, but Matthews, Conners, or Bryant are ready to knock them off if they are not at the top of their game.

1. Nick Sulzer (St. Edward)
2. Charles Mason
3. Caleb Marsh
4. Damien Perry
5. Sheldon Brandenburg (Wadsworth)
6. Chet Bissell
7. Brandon Walker
8. Josh Erb

What can you say about Nick Sulzer? Though his state placements of 2nd-3rd-2nd would seem to indicate a wrestler who has not improved, nothing could be further from the truth. Sulzer has improved markedly every year- going from a lanky frosh that was an excellent defensive and mat wrestler to an unstoppable takedown artist as well. This year every match seems to be a virtuoso performance- among them two major decisions of State Champion Kyle Ryan. In fact, despite the fact that St. Edward wrestles a loaded schedule, Sheldon Brandenburg is the only non-state champion to go the full six minutes with Sulzer all season. Best of all, the St. Edward senior always conducts himself with class on and off the mat- safe to say that the last and most talented of the Sulzer brothers will be missed by teammates and fans alike after he captures that elusive state title on Saturday Night.

The one wrestler here who can possibly slow Sulzer down is two-time state placer Caleb Marsh. Marsh is very physical and would have a shot at winning in either Division II or Division III- but here, I can’t see him doing much better than holding Sulzer to five or six point loss.

Yet again, Wadsworth is a huge beneficiary of the draw at this weight. In my view, the three best wrestlers in what is far from a loaded weight are Nick Sulzer, Caleb Marsh, and Damien Perry. However, state placer Bissell of Twinsburg – who wasn’t even going to be competing as of a month ago- beat Perry, and beat him badly at Districts. In my view, that result was something of an aberration, and perhaps could clear the way for Brandenburg to be a state finalist. I think with Bissell likely not having his head in the game entirely he is unlikely to advance to the finals, and Brandenburg could be a surprise finalist for Wadsworth. I say COULD be, because I do think that Charles Mason will beat him, but he has a shot. On the other hand, with the parity in this weight, it’s possible that Brandenburg could be eliminated before placing (which would be devastating to Wadsworth’s chances) or finish only 7th or 8th. However, he has been much more consistent this year than in years past so I would be surprised if he does not crack the top six.

1. Josh Demas
2. Sam Wheeler
3. Michael Alexander
4. Tylan Coleman
5. Ian Korb
6. Kwan Bailey
7. Nate Brubaker
8. Matt Ferguson

At the start of the year I thought this would be a fairly weak weight, but no weight class has grown in stature so much over the course of the season. First, Josh Demas moved up here. Then, Michael Alexander defeated the outstanding Alex Utley twice. And of course, there is the emergence of Sam Wheeler- seemingly out of nowhere- as one of Ohio’s best juniors. Now, this is a great weight class. When you have a wrestler of the caliber of Nate Brubaker projected 7th- that’s a loaded weight. The top half bracket of state champion Josh Demas, placewinners Coleman (2x) and Alexander, plus Brubaker, is particularly daunting. In the bottom half, you have a battle of the two very talented juniors in Korb and Wheeler to advance to the finals opposite Demas. As mentioned, Wheeler was barely on the radar for me at the start of year and is one of the state’s most improved wrestlers. Along the way to a eye-opening 50-0 record he has beaten Cody Lamberg and Michael Alexander.

That said, nobody here is touching one of the most gifted athletes in Ohio, Josh Demas. Demas is in that group of truly elite wrestlers in Ohio (along with Logan Stieber, Chris Phillips, Felipe Martinez, Nick Sulzer, and Jamie Clark if he is wrestling to his full ability again). Blazingly fast, Demas can create his shot at will- combine that with great scrambling ability and you have a dynamite combo. I’d love to see a Demas-Chris Phillips match, and while I still cannot Demas being the winner, I suspect it might be closer than many people would guess- ahh, to have a single division state tournament…..

St. Edward’s James Suvak of course did not qualify here, and Bart Randolph of Wadsworth does not look to be much of a factor. I have Randolph losing to Korb in the first round, winning his first consolation bout (by no means a sure thing) and then almost certainly losing to Brubaker in his placement match. Tough weight and bad draw equals an early exit for Randolph.

1. Nick Miller
2. Caleb Busson (Wadsworth)
3. Andy Porter
4. Joe Tayse
5. Taylor Franz
6. Fred Robertson
7. Kevin Hyland
8. Nick Brown

In my view, there is no single wrestler who is more key to Wadsworth’s team chances than Caleb Busson. Some would label this a weak weight class, and to some extent, it is- in terms of truly elite wrestlers who you might think of as being “state champion” material. However, there is some real depth at this weight and incredible parity between about 10-12 wrestlers, so much so that I could see Busson winning the entire weight, or I could just as easily see him not placing at all (there I go again).

Many rankers have Busson at #1- while I think he has a chance, I think their motivation in ranking him first must be perhaps a desire to see a new team champion in Division I (as difficult as it is to hate a program as classy as St. Edward’s despite their long dominance). Simply put, there is no reason to place him ahead of Nick Miller- a 2x state placer who placed higher than Busson last year, is unbeaten this year and frankly a little more dominant against quality opposition. This will be a one-point match, no question in my mind- and do not expect a lot of fireworks here unless the team race is hinging on the outcome in which came 0-0 will seem like fireworks- but Miller has be the slightest of favorites in my view.

After Miller and Busson, I think the next best here is Andy Porter of Mason. Here is the real danger for Wadsworth: If Porter can beat Busson (and it’s almost a tossup), then Busson would drop down to face the loser of what is probably the most high-level first round match at this weight- District Champ Franz, and the underrated Stepp. Stepp placed 4th in his District, but that was only because he faced Porter in the quarters and in the 3rd place match (Porter lost to projected champ Miller in the semis) narrowly losing each time. Moreover, Stepp just defeated Porter a few weeks ago so he is right there with the best guys at this weight- and we all know what can happen to Seniors in the consolation bracket who have their eye on a state title after an unexpected loss. Busson’s elimination would probably eliminate the Grizzlies team chances. Basically, I think that Busson’s quarterfinal is the pivotal match in the team race- if he loses, with this much parity, I just don’t see him coming back to place high in the consolations- but if he wins, I think he’s a finalist. I think the highly athletic Busson- the quarterback of the football team- can handle the pressure and gets the job done.

There is a school of thought that super-frosh Joe Tayse of Massillon Perry is ready to bring home a title. No doubt, this kid is the future at this weight, but I think he’s still a year away. While he’s gotten so much better as the season has progressed and his District performance was brilliant- it was just two weeks ago that he needed overtime twice to win at his own Sectional. Remember that he has been pinned twice by Division III wrestlers who are not considered title contenders in that division. I think he’s your 2011 Champ, but this year, he’s just one of about ten guys who could place as high as 3rd or not place at all (parity being the operative word here).

1. Nick Tavanello (Wadsworth)
2. Kyle Rose
3. Nate Weeks
4. Anthony Wise
5. Ray Gordon
6. Dane Cullen
7. Caleb Curtis
8. Ty Walz (St. Edward)

While it’s no secret that Wadsworth has gotten some great draws- at this weight we have what can only be described as a “golden opportunity” for St. Edward. Sophomore Ty Walz is about the 10th best guy in this weight in my view- however, after a likely first round loss to Dane Cullen of Mt. Vernon, he faces the beatable Will Porter in his first round consolation match (43-6 record but on a weak schedule) and then he will face the winner of by far the most low-caliber first round match-up in this weight, the unranked duo of Matt Fechko and AJ Ralston. If Fechko is his placement round opponent- and I think he will be- Walz already pinned him at state duals. Basically, he’s exactly where you’d want to be on the bracket if you want to sneak in for a place, and I think that’s exactly what he will do. Walz has gotten markedly better as the season has progressed- in no small part due to the addition of Matt Koz to the St. Edward coaching staff I am guessing- so maybe he is one of the top eight guys, period.

Wadsworth has their explosive sophomore, Nick Tavanello, at this weight. Tavanello was almost indisputably the best freshman to ever compete above 171 lbs. in the state last year in the past 70 or so years of wrestling in this state. I had thought that he might be a little more dominant as he progressed into his sophomore year- the loss to Henderson particularly surprised me- but he’s the best guy here, no question in my mind. Tavanello has always dominated #2 ranked Weeks (a 2x state placewinner who took 4th last year), and I’d look for a repeat of history in the semis. The one wrestler who probably does have an outside shot at an upset is likely finalist Kyle Rose. Only a junior, Rose has had an outstanding season highlighted by a win over Nate Weeks. Last year he lost to our projected champion 5-3 in the consolations at state and settled for 5th. I think that Tavenello beats him nine times out of ten, however.

(above): Ben Buzzelli of Wadsworth battles Greg Kuhar of St. Edward Photo Credit- Bob Tuneberg, Villager News.

1. Ben Buzzelli (Wadsworth)
2. Nick Rajscak
3. Max Gladstone
4. Billy Vaughan
5. Alex Karageorge
6. Blake Lucas
7. Greg Kuhar (St. Edward)
8. Jordan Marrero

At the start of the year, with all state placers graduating besides Buzzelli, I had thought the two-time 4th place state finisher would prove to be at an entirely different level than the rest of the state. However, instead of Big Ben emerging as a dominate force, it seems that the pack has caught up with him. That said, while Billy Vaughan seems to have his number lately (though Buzzelli did beat him earlier in the year at Brecksville), I still think that at the end of the day Buzzelli is the best wrestler in this weight and I look for him to capture a title. Buzzelli winning the title will be absolutely essential to Wadsworth’s team chances.

Buzzelli is one of the few Wadsworth wrestlers that does not have a spectacular draw. He faces a unbeaten Karageorge in the quarterfinals. Karageorge- who made a quick exit from the Columbus last year- seems to be one of the most improved wrestlers in this division. However, he has not faced many top competitors yet. Buzzelli would then face the imposing Gladstone, whom he has beaten twice, and in the finals, it’s difficult to say who he might face due to the parity at this weight.

Greg Kuhar has a decent chance to place for St. Edward with his draw- however, he has cooled off a bit since his great M.I.T. performance. Kuhar will likely face Konnor Blevins of Lakota West in his placement match. Blevins had a very mediocre season until the tournaments, when starting with Sectionals he has seemed to hit an entirely new level, most recently handing previously unbeaten Blake Lucas his first loss. I am taking Blevins to eliminate Kuhar.

I made this forecast expecting to find that St. Edward is forecasted to retain their title once again. Much to my surprise, I have it Wadsworth 171, St. Edward 161.5. Now, that said, there is much that could derail the Grizzlies from that number. Wadsworth chances hinge on the four B’s- Buzzelli, Busson, Bradenberg, and Ball (and also on Loudon Gordon). While Buzzelli, Busson, Ball and Gordon have all been projected as finalists- there are wrestlers in their bracket that have almost a 50-50 chance of beating them- in some cases, in fact, they will have to win two tossup matches. By contrast, St. Edward is relying on guys that are virtually automatic- Sulzer, Clark, Sako, Salupo (the last two are automatic to make the finals only). St. Edward could pick up a lot of points if Dean Heil can beat Dicamillo and Young or if Bright can beat Newhouse and be a finalist. I’m very impressed with Heil (also with Bright), and frankly, it would not surprise me at all- though the equally impressive Dicamillo remains the favorite in my view.

However, that being said, one wrestler could falter considerably from this projection for Wadsworth and I’d still have them slightly ahead, and there are other wrestlers who might do considerably worse that forecast for St. Edward. With the parity at 112, Edgar Bright could place much lower than forecast, or not at all (unlikely in my view unless he is plagued by the freshman jitters). Van Curen and McIntyre are a virtual tossup in their placement match- Van Curen losing this would result in a loss of five points from their projected total.

At the end of the day, the only thing I can say for sure is it’s going to be a hell of a show! Ohio Wrestling Site will be there doing live updates starting with the quarterfinals on Friday morning, so be sure to tune in then!

State Preview 2010