Collision Course:  A Panel of Ohio Wrestling Experts “Weigh-In” on the Biggest State Tournament Matchups of 2006.

“There can be only one.”

This phrase, popularized by the movie Highlander, applies well to the following weight classes- weights where you have two or more wrestlers who would be good enough to win a state title in an average year- but only one of them will claim the coveted top spot on the podium at “the Schott”. 

Ohio Wresting Site- and a panel of Ohio wrestling gurus- projected the winners of the ten biggest matchups this weekend. 

#10 Matchup:  Division I 112:  Collin Palmer vs. Ryan Fields

Simply put, Collin Palmer is the best freshman this state has seen since Dustin Schlatter.  Like Schlatter, he begins his career as a freshman 112- and makes winning look effortless.  Despite wrestling Lakewood St. Edward’s brutal schedule, 35 of Palmer’s 36 wins have been by major decision, technical fall, or fall.  In fact, just one Ohio opponent has gone the full six minutes with Palmer (Zach Toal, who Palmer defeated 11-1).

  In spite of his brilliance Palmer may face a legitimate challenge in the form of 2005 state runner-up Ryan Fields.  Outstanding last year as a freshman, Fields has moved to a whole different level this season, running up a 43-0 record with numerous falls himself.  Included in that group was an extremely impressive 7-3 win at Brecksville over Division II favorite Dennis Roche.  Ohio wrestling expert Dan Ransick had the following analysis of Fields’ wrestling style:  “Fields is extremely quick on his feet and can get takedowns out of nowhere due to that quickness. He is also brutally devastating on top and has racked up 26 pins this year. The Palmer vs. Fields match will be one of the best match-ups in Division I this year.”

I can see two possible outcomes here.  Fields wins a down-tempo 3-2, 2-1 type match, or Palmer gets his offense rolling and wins big. 

Expert Picks
Brian Brakeman: Palmer 
Bob Preusse:      Palmer
Dan Ransick:      Fields
Bucksman:        Palmer

Ohio Wrestling Site Pick: Collin Palmer

Division I 112 Predictions
1. Collin Palmer
2. Ryan Fields
3. Tim Peskar
4. Brian Stephens
5. Pat Zamaria
6. Seth Horner
7. Justin McCoy
8. Andrew Dinda

#9 Matchup:  Division I 171:  Brian Roddy vs. Dustin Kilgore
       
At this weight we have one of Ohio’s best sophomores, Brian Roddy, taking on one of the state’s best juniors in the form of Dustin Kilgore.  Kilgore is highly-polished technically.  Third last year at 160, he is very much a “machine”- fast, strong, and mistake-free. 

By contrast Roddy is a bit “rough around the edges” but overwhelms opponents with his intensity, power, and physical style.  Truly a “goer” Roddy comes at you relentlessly for the whole six minutes- and has overcome significant deficits more than once.  Against the #1 ranked 171 in Division II, Jeremy Foster, Roddy fell behind 5-0 but fought back to win 7-5.  Roddy also trailed Pennsylvania’s top ranked Rob Waltko at Ironman, before rallying to take the lead and score the fall.  It is my belief that the schedule Roddy has faced will be the difference in a match that will be hotly contested until the final buzzer. 

While Roddy and Kilgore have emerged as slight co-favorites here, Louis Miller and Eric Cameron are only a half-step behind.  Miller has been outstanding year, especially since dropping to 171.  He and Cameron have a history of trading close wins (Miller has won three of four this year), but the most recent win he had over Cameron was a decisive 8-2.  Cameron started out this season like a house on fire, winning Ironman over Roddy and also Powerade.  However, a loss at state duals to Roddy by fall has seemed to send him into a downward spiral.

Expert Picks
Brakeman:  Kilgore
Bucksman:  Kilgore
Preusse:     Roddy
Ransick:     Roddy

Ohio Wrestling Site Pick: Brian Roddy

Division I 171 Predictions
1. Brian Roddy
2. Dustin Kilgore
3. Louis Miller
4. Eric Cameron
5. Matt LaFollette
6. Mike Marrero
7. Tony Santos
8. Dru Jones

#8 Matchup: Division III 145: Matt Lerer vs. Marc Hoff

        At the end of 2005, Marc Hoff seemed like a sure bet for 2006.  After all, he had been 3rd at state at 145 lbs. two years in a row, both years defeating the eventual state champion Moss earlier in the season.  However, a “ringer” transferred into Beachwood in the form of three-time Division I state placer Matt Lerer.  With funky defense and outstanding leg-riding skills, Lerer can be devastating when he is “on”, as shown by his wins over Shane Friery and Jake Kyle this season.   Meanwhile, Hoff has not lost or even been remotely pushed at 145 lbs. this year.  How this one will go is truly anyone’s guess- there aren’t any common opponents to speak of.  I am going with Lerer because I believe that having Lipp as a work-out partner will make the difference in a grueling bout. It should be noted that Lerer faces a substantial obstacle to making the finals in Mick Nicola of Bellaire St. John, who was 4th last year and has a win over Zack Schuller to his credit.

Expert Picks
Brakeman: Hoff
Bucksman: Hoff
Preusse:    Lerer
Ransick:    Lerer

Ohio Wrestling Site Pick: Matt Lerer

Division III 145 Prediction:
1. Matt Lerer
2. Marc Hoff
3. Mick Nicola
4. Ryan Thatcher
5. Steve Wilson
6. Walt Dolinski
7. Drew Looser
8. Christian Ortolani

#7 Matchup:  Division II 145:  Andy Lamancusa versus Zack Schuller/Robbie Michaels

An outstanding quartet was reduced to a trio when state champ Shane Friery succumbed to a combination of injury and a ridiculously tough District draw (he was eliminated by Eric Cubberly in the consolation semifinals).  Nonetheless, the competition here will be fierce.  Lamancusa  (36-0) is an absolute joy to watch compete- a takedown artist in the truest sense of the phrase.  He has an ability to create leg attacks that is unsurpassed by any other wrestler in this state- his head outside single is truly picture-perfect, and he epitomizes the phrase “attacks for the full six minutes.”  According to Bob Preusse of Amateur Wrestling News, LaMancusa is one of the two best unsigned seniors in Ohio (along with Quentin Keyes). 

Schuller, by contrast, is a master of winning the close, controlled bout. 
He has placed third and sixth the past two years.  However, he faces a substantial obstacle to making his first finals appearance- Robbie Michaels of Clyde, who sports a spotless 36-0 record.  Michaels is for real, as shown by not only his win over Friery, but his win over Division I state runner-up Derek Foore and his three wins over tough sophomore Kirk Tank.  The bet here is no one will be able to stop Lamancusa’s explosive offense.  

Expert Picks:
Brakeman: Lamancusa
Bucksman: Schuller
Preusse:    Lamancusa
Ransick:    Schuller

Ohio Wrestling Site Pick: Andy Lamancusa

Division II 145 Prediction:
1. Andy Lamancusa
2. Zack Schuller
3. Robbie Michaels
4. Kirk Tank
5. Eric Cubberly
6. Phil Dukes
7. Evan Lovell
8. James Mannier

#6 Matchup: Division I 189 lbs:  Erique Robertson vs. Chris Honeycutt

Going into this season, junior Erique Robertson looked like a solid favorite at 189 lbs after finishing 4th at 171 last year.  However, Chris Honeycutt, a former Ohio Junior High State Champion, transferring back to Lakewood St. Edward’s this year has thrown that into doubt.  Though he placed at Ironman and Beast of the East, it was at the Medina Invitational Tournament that Honeycutt really hit his stride.  There, he defeated John Weakley in overtime- a wrestler most thought was unbeatable at the time.  Since then, Honeycutt has been unbeaten and virtually unchallenged. 

Robertson started the year big with a major decision of Bill Schindel (ranked #3 in Division II) but struggled at Sectionals, losing to the previously unheralded Myron Andrews.  Though he avenged that loss at Districts, his conditioning may be an issue- which would be a serious problem against Honeycutt, who maintains a torrid pace the entire match.  This showdown will take place in the semis but is the “de facto” championship match. 

Expert Picks
Brakeman: Robertson
Bucksman: Honeycutt
Preusse:    Honeycutt
Ransick:    Robertson

Ohio Wrestling Site Pick: Chris Honeycutt

Division I 189 Prediction
1. Chris Honeycutt
2. Myron Andrews
3. Erique Robertson
4. Vince Dattillo
5. Ryan Legg
6. Brooks Keefer
7. Brian Porter
8. Ernie Porko

#5 Matchup:  Division II 135:  Pat McLemore vs. Ryan Cubberly

The theme of this matchup is “long overdue” (i.e. for a state title).  Cubberly is already a two-time state runner-up, losing twice to 3x state champion Cameron Doggett.  Pat McLemore won state at 103 as a freshman in dominating fashion- and looked to be heading toward four state titles.  However, the move to 119 the next year proved a bit much as he failed to place.  As a junior he was favored by many to win state at 135 lbs. but was injured and did not compete in the tournaments. Now, he will be looking to finish where he started- on top of the podium.  Both of these wrestlers are outstanding with tilts from the top position, but more conservative on their feet in big matches- so scoring backpoints here would almost clinch the match.  McLemore won at Districts 4-2.  This one is a toss-up- on nothing more than a hunch that these great competitors will “split” Ohio Wrestling Site will take Cubberly in a bout that will go down to the wire. 

Expert Picks
Brakeman:   Cubberly
Bucksman:   McLemore
Preusse:      McLemore
Ransick:      McLemore

Ohio Wrestling Site Pick:  Ryan Cubberly

Division II 135 Predictions
1. Ryan Cubberly
2. Pat McLemore
3. Kevin Christensen
4. Chris Andrews
5. Stephen Morrison
6. Greg Hilbert
7. Zip Zimmer
8. Tom Brown

#4 Matchup: Divison II 125:  Ben Jordan vs. Quentin Keyes

With the possible exception of Division II 135, none of the matchups is a tougher call than this one.  Ben Jordan defeated Quentin Keyes by a point last year in Columbus in the state semifinals, denying Keyes a second straight finals appearance, and then won state over defending champ Adam Kriwinsky- all as a freshman 119.  This year, he defeated Keyes again at Ironman.  I watched that match closely.  Keyes could simply not seem to get anything going as Jordan was in on his legs the entire match in a 5-3 win that saw Jordan score both takedowns while yielding only three escapes.  So why is this a tough call?  Since the Ironman Keyes has seemed to step up his intensity level, and has shown much more offense than before.  Remember that Keyes had a long history of losing to Keith Sulzer too, yet he beat him this year in their dual.  Jordan, by contrast, lost to Sulzer by a lopsided margin.  In addition, Keyes placed at Beast of the East while Jordan did not (and neither did Keith Sulzer or Ben Llanas). 

I saw Keyes wrestle state champ Adam Koballa at Mayfield- in that match he fell behind but showed true grit in fighting back for the win.  I think Keyes is on a mission and will unseat Jordan.  Ironically, Keyes’ District Championship was rewarded by drawing state champion Ben Llanas of Eastwood in the first round- by far the marquee match of that round.  Llanas has strugged all year- losing eight times so far- so  Keyes has to be heavily favored against him. 

Expert Picks
Brakeman: Jordan
Bucksman: Jordan
Preusse:     Keyes
Ransick:     Jordan

Ohio Wrestling Site Pick: Quentin Keyes

Division II 125 Predictions
1. Quentin Keyes
2. Ben Jordan
3. Jeremy Espinoza
4. Matt Manful
5. Travis Salyer
6. Ben Llanas
7. Drew Kapper
8. Aaron Sulzer

#3 Matchup: Division II 130:  Adam Kriwinsky, Coby Boyd, Willie Saxton and Chase Skonieczny

Ohio has packed four national-caliber 130’s into a single division in what promises to be the best weight class of the 2006 state tournament.  Adam Kriwinsky was a state champion at 112 lbs as a sophomore and runner-up to Jordan at 119 as a junior. Kriwinsky really made a name for himself at the Ironman against Billy Murphy, the nation’s best 130.  For the first half of that match, Murphy was taking down Kriwinsky and letting him up in what looked like a rout.  However, with the score 8-4, Kriwinsky suddenly struck back with a counter takedown of his own.  From there, the relentless Kriwinsky had Murphy on the run, falling just short in a 10-9 loss.  I think that match shows just how good this entire quartet is.    
       
The wrestler with the most national credentials, but no state finals appearances thus far, is Willie Saxton of Buckeye Local High School.  Saxton won the NHSCA Juniors last spring at 125 lbs. and was a junior national freestyle all-american in Fargo as well.  He is also a former cadet national freestyle runner-up.  This year, he has been untouchable- thrashing defending I state champion Kevin Hardy by a 17-6 score early in the season. The rest of the season has been more of the same- Saxton winning one lopsided bout after another.

Skonieczny placed 3rd at Ironman, losing by fall to Boyd but beating Kriwinsky (Boyd beat Skonieczny, Skonieczny beat Kriwinsky, and Kriwinsky beat Boyd). Kriwinsky of course avenged the loss 2-1 at Districts in a match that proved very little.  Skonieczny also won Powerade in impressive fashion, beating state champ Hardy for the 2nd time this year as well as a nationally ranked Virginia state champion in the finals.   

Coby Boyd is one of the top sophomores in the nation.  Boyd was FILA Cadet National freestyle champion last spring and may have more impressive national-level wins than any wrestler in this group.  Boyd is hard to score on and can be a pinner (pinned Skoniezczny at Ironman).  He will get a rematch of his one point Ironman loss to Kriwinsky in the semis.

So far this Kriwinsky, Boyd, and Skonieczny have wrestled four matches between themselves.  Three of them were as even as could be- and settled absolutely nothing.  The only decisive win was Boyd’s pin of Skonieczny.  So I am taking Boyd as the best of this group.  However, I am going with Saxton as champion (and this is far from a foolproof system) because he beat state champion Hardy much easier than Skonieczny did.  Interestingly, each of the four experts picked someone different in this group. 

Note: Skonieczny is projected fifth because since he has drawn Saxton in the quarterfinals, he will face the loser of Kriwinsky/Boyd in the consolation semifinals if he loses. 

Expert Picks
Brakeman:  Kriwinsky
Bucksman:  Boyd
Preusse:     Skonieczny
Ransick:     Saxton

Ohio Wrestling Site Pick: Willie Saxton

Division II 130 Prediction
1. Willie Saxton
2. Coby Boyd
3. Adam Kriwinsky
4. Ben Fondale
5. Chase Skonieczny
6. Josh Cintron
7. Arthur Milner
8. Derik Caudill

#2 Matchup:  Division III 140: Kevin Lipp vs. Josh Falk

        The symmetry is impossible to ignore.  Kevin Lipp’s older brother Jordan Lipp won state at 112 lbs. as a freshman, but despite having an outstanding career, never won it again.  Kevin Lipp won state at 112 lbs. as a freshman, and came up a bit short his sophomore and junior years.  Falk will seek to make history repeat itself. 

Falk, only a junior, hasn’t tasted defeat since he was a freshman.   He has pretty much dominated all comers the past two years.  However, he wrestles a much easier schedule than Lipp, which makes it harder to “gauge” his talents.  The one common opponent these wrestlers do have is Division II favorite Jake Kyle.  Kyle upset Lipp at state last year 5-4 in a match that Lipp lead 4-0 at one point. By comparison, Falk has beaten Kyle once in 2005 and once in 2006, both times in overtime. 

Nonetheless, Lipp has just been too consistent against the state’s best this year to not pick him.  He won easily against McLemore, Moore, and Bodnar among others.  Look for Lipp to bookend his state titles with a one point win.

Expert Picks:
Brakeman: Lipp
Bucksman: Lipp
Preusse:    Falk
Ransick:    Lipp

Ohio Wrestling Site Pick:  Kevin Lipp

Division III 140 Prediction
1. Kevin Lipp
2. Josh Falk
3. Justin Seebach
4. Juni Arreola
5. Max Wyse
6. Jake Fose
7. Kayne Melko
8. Lucas Chasteen

#1: The Marquee Matchup: Ohio Division II 152 lbs:  Colt Sponseller vs. Josh Rohler

Rohler and Sponseller probably need no introduction to Ohio Wrestling fans.  Sponseller, only a junior, crushed the opposition to win state at 140 last year as a sophomore and then placed at junior national freestyle as well.  Sponseller nearly scored a technical fall in the state finals. 

Rohler may be the best wrestler in the entire nation who has not yet won state.  As a sophomore, he finished 2nd at 140, losing 5-3 (giving up a number of bizarre penalty points) in a match in which he was favored.  As a junior, he twice defeated two-time Junior National Freestyle All-American Dave Rella, only to get inexplicably upset in the semifinals by a wrestler that Rella would then technical fall.  Rohler would finish 3rd.  In the post-season, he redeemed himself by winning the NHSCA Junior National Championships.  Not only has Rohler defeated Rella twice, he has also defeated since-graduated stars Dave Erwin (now nationally ranked for Penn State) and 3x Pennsylvania State Champion Joey Eckloff. 

Rohler, however, has been hampered this season by a knee injury suffered at the Beast of the East and missed over a month of the season.  I asked Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary’s Head Coach Anthony Gary if Rohler’s knee was 100%.  Sporting his best poker face, Gary responded, “he’ll be ready to go in Columbus”. 

The contrast of styles makes this matchup even more interesting.  Sponseller is a takedown artist who attacks relentlessly.  Rohler is an outstanding counter specialist and mat wrestler.  Legendary wrestling analyst Brian Brakeman picked Sponseller, and had very interesting commentary on the matchup: 

I think Sponseller will win, though this choice will undoubtedly motivate Rohler.  There are three critical factors.  It’s been more than a month now and Rohler must still have issues with that knee that “no more than two weeks out”  now rings as very optimistic.  Second, I think Sponseller is better on his feet--a half-step quicker and a great finisher.  Third, I wonder about Rohler’s reaction in these big bouts.  He’s wrestled a lot of them in life, but twice now he has struggled at a crucial moment in the state tournament process.  This tendency could be exacerbated if his knee is not 100%.

If Rohler had wrestled the entire season, and was in 100% health, I would have chosen Rohler.  However, given that both his health and his conditioning are in question, I think Sponseller has to be the choice.  Sponseller will be on the attack for the entire six minutes, so if Rohler’s “lungs” are not up to snuff, that weakness will be exposed.  On the other hand, the aggressiveness of Sponseller could play into counter-specialist Rohler’s hands.  In a pure takedown battle, when you factor in conditioning, Sponseller has the edge- Rohler is going to have to put Sponseller to his back at some point to win this match in my view. This match has the makings of a state tournament epic- up there with Musser/Vaughn, St. John/Chandler, and Knupp/Zerkle.

An interesting dark horse at this weight is sophomore Jared Kusar of Revere.  A clear-cut 3rd best wrestler in this weight, he pushed Rohler to the limit at both sectionals and districts (though he lost 6-0 it was 1-0 with ten seconds to go).  Kusar is extremely powerful and a dangerous wrestler- Sponseller had better not be looking past him (they will wrestle in the semifinals)! 

Expert Picks.
Brakeman: Sponseller
Bucksman: Rohler
Preusse:    Rohler
Ransick:    Sponseller

Ohio Wrestling Site Pick:  Colt Sponseller

Division II 152 Prediction:
1. Colt Sponseller
2. Josh Rohler
3. Jared Kusar
4. Thomas Schwartz
5. Keith Witt
6. Zach Clark
7. Eric Schott
8. Alex Croasman

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