The Moment of Truth:  St. Edward Eagles battle Blair for the National Title Saturday
                   
You knew there would be a move. 

When cadet national champ Ryland Geiger decided to head back to Oregon, Blair suddenly found themselves in the unfamiliar role of underdog in a their future match-up against St. Edward.  That held true at the Ironman, where St. Edward defeated Blair to deny Blair the #1 ranking for the first time in years.

Yet, though the Ironman win was big, it is the St. Edward-Blair Dual, where the national title really is being decided.  Without fail, every year against St. Edward, Blair coach Jeff Buxton has seemingly out-foxed the Eagles with a brilliant lineup shift that tilted the balance in favor of Blair.  With Blair in the underdog role this year, it was a virtual no-brainer that Buxton had something up his sleeve- this is not a man one expects to go “quietly into the night”.  The only question was what 11th hour stroke of genius he would unveil.

Many thought the “move” would involve 125 lb. Anthony Valles, either down to 119 or up to 130.  Certainly, that would have made sense, given that St. Edward 125 Collin Palmer has had two-time cadet national champ Valles’ number in a big way- to the tune of two major decisions.  But the Ironman saw Anthony Valles go down with a season-ending injury- which only served to strengthen the Eagles’ favorite status.

The next “move” seemed to involve one of their “big guns” Jared Platt.  An excellent sourced dropped the tidbit to me at the Super Eight Duals that Platt, the nation’s #2 wrestler at 215, only weighed 205 naturally and had certified at 189, and that we might see a showdown of two of the nation’s finest upperweights if he dropped to 189 to challenge Chris Honeycutt for this dual only. However, as it turns out Platt cannot cut weight for medical reasons, and even if he did, Blair does not have backup who can beat Ben Rios- so that move, it seems, served little advantage.

But finally, the “move” has come.  And it was the move this writer, and other prognosticators, absolutely did not see coming.

Eric Medina to 145.  

Medina, a (2x) Ironman, Beast of the East, and Cadet National Champ, hasn’t seen this weight since his sophomore year.   Yet, apparently he will in fact be at this weight for this dual.  Along with that, Adam Hogue (ironically, a native of Twinsburg, Ohio) will move to 152.   A closer look is in order as to what this shift does for Blair:

Before, St. Edward was heavily favored at 145 and 160 and was in fact likely to score bonus points at both weights.  Blair was likely to score bonus points in the 152 lb. bout.  Now, St. Edward is favored only at 160.  In essence, Blair has picked up a win in the dual, provided that Hogue can defeat Scott Elliot- by no means a sure thing.  Before, I would have scored these three weights 8-4 in favor of St. Edward.  Now, I have them at 6-6 or possibly 7-6 in favor of Blair, a 4-5 point swing in a dual that is likely to be decided by a point or two.
A blow-by-blow look at the action:

103- Jamie Clark vs. Tony Buxton-

At the start of the year, one of the great debates was which dominating cadet national champion, Logan Stieber of David Taylor, would be the next great lightweight in this Ohio.  Both are still simply awesome, but arguably, a third cadet national champ, freshman Jamie Clark, has stolen the show.  Probably the most relentless and intense competitor in this state not named Sponseller, Clark is a six-minute all-out attacker who has done the unthinkable- beaten David Taylor- in a match that saw him score four takedowns to Taylor’s one.  Clark has also been beaten by Taylor and Stieber, both in matches that saw him within seconds of possibly winning at the end.  Somehow, even those narrow losses seemed like “moral victories” for the undersized Clark.  

Tony Buxton (Coach Buxton’s  son) is a solid competitor who is approximately at the level of a low to middle state place-winner in my view.  If this match plays out as I believe it will (read on) holding Clark to a regular decision will be absolutely essential. 

Clark by major decision,  4-0 St. Edward

112- Nick Sulzer vs. Chris Villalonga

This weight features two wrestlers with remarkably similar styles- both are rangy freshmen who are tough to score on. Chris Villalonga has been perhaps the surprise of the Blair team.  Only a freshman, Villalonga was a cadet national runner-up last summer though he was destroyed in the finals by Logan Stieber in that match.  His performances this season have been even better than anticipated, with runner-up finishes thus far at the Ironman and Beast of the East.  Villalonga already defeated Sulzer once (at Ironman, by a score of 3-0) and also owns two wins over Kyle Lang of Brecksville.  

Nick Sulzer has also put together a solid season, including opening the year by defeating state champ Steve Mitcheff.  Sulzer seems to rise to the occasion in a big dual, most recently upsetting Zach Neibert of Graham.  Villalonga has to be the favorite, however,  in a low-scoring bout- though an upset by Sulzer is not out of the question and would be huge in this dual.

Villalonga by dec 4-3 St. Edward

119- Jon Cobos vs. Garrett Frey
                                       
This is one of the weakest weights for both teams.  Of course, “weak” is a relative term- the sophomore Garrett Frey is, in my view, at about the level of a low state place-winner if he were competing in Ohio.  Jon Cobos might very well be at that level, but has missed the entire season with a staph infection and just returned last week- and struggled upon his return.  Blair has to be favored here.

Frey by dec 6-4 Blair

125- Collin Palmer vs. Joe Stanzione

Collin Palmer is not only one of the best sophomores in the nation, but is one of the best big-match wrestlers in the country and a bonus points machine.  See the 2006 state finals.  Last year, he scored a major in this dual, and he should do at least that this year. 

Stanzione shows flashes of brilliance, such as his win over Jarred Garnett at Beast of the East, but failed to place at either Ironman or Beast (where he was beaten handily by Cordell Longstreath).  Wrestlers not even close to Palmer’s level have put him on his back before, and Palmer is fresh off a fall against New Jersey state champ Trause.  I think St. Edward scores “six” here.

Palmer by Fall 10-6 St. Edward

130- Neil Birt v. Kellen Russell

Birt is one of the most improved wrestlers in this state.  One year ago he failed to place at state, then over the summer he stunned many by placing at Fargo (admittedly, with a very favorable draw).  This year he looks much stronger and more confident than in the past and he has emerged as a slight favorite to win a state title this season.  His development is another great feather in the cap of the St. Edward coaching staff. 

Kellen Russell of Blair, despite losing at Beast of the East this year, is one of the best seniors in Ohio.  Russell has won about all there is to win at the high school level, including Cadet and Junior National Freestyle titles the past two years.  Those who were at the Ironman saw him dismantle Division II co-favorite Chase Skonieczny (a wrestler with several wins over Birt).  

Russell is historically more of a control wrestler who seems to have opened up this year.   The order of the day here is for Neil Birt to stay off his back, with bonus points being absolutely crucial. 

Russell by major decision 10-10

135- Andrew Gasber v. Max Shanaman

Sophomore Andrew Gasber has emerged as one of the deadliest throwers in not only Ohio but the entire nation.  The list of wrestlers that he has thrown to their backs this year  include Ben Jordan (fall), Richie Spicel, Nick Menditto (ranked #3 in New Jersey), Dave Cawley, and Max Shanaman.    However, make no mistake, he can be scored on, and after he put Shanaman to his back twice in the first minute of their match at Ironman Shanaman responded with eighteen unanswered points.

Max Shanaman is a two-time junior national all-american who has had a very good season, though possibly not quite as great as would have been anticipated.  This match is without question one of the key bouts of the night.  Gasber has already shown he can throw Shanaman (though Shanaman has conversely shown he can fight off his back) and absolutely could win this match by fall.  If this were a boxing match Gasber would be the guy the champ doesn’t want to fight- the guy who can knock out anyone if he can connect that one big shot, i.e. we would say he has a “puncher’s chance”.  On the other hand, this match could, and perhaps more likely will, end up being a blowout for Shanaman.  In other words, it’s a huge swing match.   I look for a wild match in which Gasber gets a throw at some point, Shanaman fights it off, and comes back to defeat Gasber by some crazy 18-12 type score.  A Gasber fall would be very difficult for Blair to overcome.

Shanaman by decision 13-10 Blair

140- Shawn Harris vs. Mario Mason

Along with Birt and Brian Roddy, Shawn Harris is the most-improved wrestler on the St. Edward squad.  His match with Zac Kemmerer at Ironman is one that few that witnessed it will ever forget- perhaps the most intensely fought high school match this writer has ever seen.  At the end, it was Harris stunning Kemmerer by fall in double-overtime.  At the time Kemmerer was rated #1 in the nation.

And yet, Harris is a decided underdog against Mario Mason of Blair Academy.  Other than perhaps Jason Welch, Mason has put together the most impressive season of any junior in the nation, winning Ironman and Beast in what may have been the toughest weight classes in each event, and later moving up a weight to defeat cadet and junior national champion Luke Ashmore at the NHSCA Final Four. 

Mason is a master of controlling position and imposing his style on this opponent, and has perhaps the smoothest counter-offense of any wrestler in the nation.  Their previous bout (in the Ironman finals) saw Mason control the action in scoring both takedowns and win 5-2,  look for a very similar result this time.  Harris is one of the elite 140’s in the nation, but it is very difficult to see any result other than Mason winning.

Mason by decision 16-10 Blair




ABOVE: Ohio's top ranked 140 faces the nation's top ranked 140 as Shawn Harris (shown here against Germaine Lindsey) squares off against Mario Mason. Photo Credit to Bob Tuneberg, Villager News.

145- Dan Gonsor v. Eric Medina

This is the weight where Blair appears to be starting their “shift.” Blair previously had freshman Jesse Shanaman at this weight.  Shanaman has a great future for Blair, but as a freshman middleweight, is simply not ready for national competition at this point (even Blair alum Zach Esposito struggled as a freshman 145).   St. Edward countered with mat-wrestling specialist Danny Gonsor.   Gonsor was very likely to major or pin Shanaman once he got things rolling from the top position.   With Medina dropping to 145, however, it is very likely that Blair gets a pin or major instead.   My thinking is, however, that the cut will take a little out of Medina, and it should be noted that Gonsor is not one who goes to his back very often- though a match with the explosive Medina could be an exception.  I think, wrestling at his home gym, the senior Gonsor is not going to want to be the guy who gave up “six” in the biggest match of the year, and slows things down and holds Medina to a decision.

Medina by Decision 19-10 Blair



ABOVE: Danny Gonsor has his work cut out for him as Eric Medina, one of the nation's best 152's, nexpectedly drops to 145 for this dual only. Photo Credit to Bob Tuneberg, Villager News

152- Scott Elliott v. Adam Hogue

The 152 lb. weight class is one where Medina very likely would have gotten a major or a fall over Scott Elliot.  Currently ranked #5 in the state, Elliot competes with a lot of “heart” and has put together a solid season in his first year of starting.   Blair’s gamble is that sophomore Adam Hogue can drop to 152 and defeat Elliot.  Hogue is the slightest of favorites in my view.  Make no mistake, this match is the key bout of the dual.  You cannot overestimate the importance of momentum in a dual.   With Blair likely sweeping 130-145, St. Edward badly needs the senior Elliot to “stem the tide” so to speak, and re-capture the momentum heading into the upperweights.  If he can win this bout I feel very good about St. Edward’s chances.  Nonetheless, I have Hogue as a slight favorite.

Hogue by decision 22-10 Blair

160- Sean Nemec v. ???

I’m not sure who Blair will put out there.  I am sure, however, that Sean Nemec has been on fire since returning from an injury.   I think he would have got the major against Adam Hogue, which leads me to believe he will get the fall over his backup.  He did just score a fall against a much better wrestler- #2 ranked (Divison II) David Fisher of Columbus Desales. 

Nemec by Fall 22-16 Blair

171- Brian Roddy vs. Cory Peltier

This is a battle of two juniors who are absolutely on fire since Ironman, where Roddy won 8-7 over Peltier.  While Roddy’s has been destroying great competition over the past six weeks, Peltier was just as impressive at Beast of the East, scoring five falls, and a 7-0 decision over Ranauto (the wrestler who beat Magrum at NHSCA last spring).  Peltier is developing into one of Blair’s superstars, just as Roddy is for St. Edward.  This match will be one of the great bouts of the night.

Roddy by decision 22-22 tie

189- Chris Honeycutt (St. Edward) vs. Reid Fleir (Blair)

Chris Honeycutt has developed into one of the premier 189’s in the nation in an unbeaten senior campaign.  Honeycutt is very tough on top with his cradle- and a fall is not out of the question here.  It’s my understanding that Blair will go with Fleir, a respectable competitor, but at this level- a journeyman who will not threaten Honeycutt.

Honeycutt by major decision 26-22 St. Edward

215- Ben Rios vs. Jared Platt

Despite weighing 205 lbs at most, Jared Platt is head and shoulders above all 215’s in the nation other than Cody Gardner (side note:  Platt will wrestle Gardner in a dual earlier that day).  To put it in perspective, Platt threw and pinned Justin Powell in the first period in the Beast of the East semifinals.  Rios has improved from last year and is better than he’s often given credit for.  However, if Platt can pin Powell….. it’s difficult to see any result here other than a fall.

Platt by fall 28-26 Blair

285- Ben Kuhar v. Kyle Hanson

The struggles of state runner-up and 2x cadet national champion Kuhar since his knee-injury in football his junior year have been well-documented and need no re-hashing here.  He should still be a slight favorite over the Blair wrestler, Kyle Hanson. Hanson was beaten at Ironman by Frank Becker (fall) and Adam Walls (3-2) though both of those wrestlers have also beaten Kuhar (an unthinkable prospect two years ago).  Kuhar does have a win over Walls though.  I think Kuhar at some point will have to start wrestling up to his potential, and this dual could be the start of a turnaround for him.  If he loses, that would be a huge blow to St. Edward’s chances.

Kuhar by decision 29-28 St. Edward

SUMMARY:

Obviously, the team that wins more matches in a dual generally wins the dual.  This could be an exception to the rule.  As it have it, Blair wins eight matches to St. Edward’s six, yet St. Edward wins the dual due to a high number of majors or falls.  Blair has their usual superstars wrestlers, but has more (relatively) weak weights than St. Edward does and most of  Blair’s weaker weights (103, 125, 160, and 189) just so happen to match up with St. Edward’s big guns. If St. Edward can win seven of the fourteen weights, they win this dual, no question.  If they win six, it’s still a virtual toss-up. 

The one thing that we can be certain of is there won’t be a dull moment as the national title is decided Saturday evening in Lakewood, Ohio.  Stay tuned to www.ohiowrestlingsite.com for live updates that night.  

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OhioWrestlingSite.com 2005