JUNIOR NATIONAL FREESTYLE PREVIEW

TEAM OUTLOOK

Ohio will field a quality team as they always do- but this team is far from our best.   Of the top 25 Seniors in this state as I’ve rated them- only four will be wrestling in the Fargodome, including none of the top five (Sponseller, Nemec, Kilgore, Honeycutt, Straughn).  While the outstanding Ohio junior class is better represented, with Magrum, Cubberly, Moore, Foster, Skonieczny, Hiles, and Wilson all attending- none of the “top three” Seniors to be- Brian Roddy, Tony Jameson, or Coby Boyd- will be there.  Roddy would have been a title contender (or at least a top three finisher) but has been sidelined by injury.  In all, there are no less than four former junior national freestyle All-Americans who will not be there- Roddy, Sponseller, Nemec, and Weakley.  Either Nemec or Sponseller would have also stood a good chance to win at 160, but Sponseller (much more of a folkstyle specialist) is lifting and working on his mat wrestling so as to better prepare to be Ohio State’s starting 165 next year, and Nemec is recovering from surgery. 

Neverless, Ohio still brings some firepower in the lower weights (Taylor, Sergent) and, as usual, is very strong from 152-285 (despite missing Roddy, Sponseller, Nemec, and Weakley).  It may be a “pipe-dream”, but I still think that, if everything falls into place, ten All-Americans is not an impossibility. 

THE “LOCK”

David Taylor, St. Paris Graham (Cadet 105)

Taylor emerged from two years at the cadet nationals with three national championships and a runner-up finish (he lost a single bout, in Greco-Roman, when he was headlocked while approaching a technical fall victory).  Other than that one fluke loss, Taylor has never been seriously pushed in Fargo.  Don’t look for that to change this weekend.  There are four wrestlers who pose a nominal challenge Taylor.  Perhaps his prinicipal competition will be Mark Rappo of Pennsylvania.  Rappo has finished second and fourth the last two years in Cadet Freestyle.  However, Rappo has a very poor track record against Taylor, including…..losing (12-3) to him at the Super 32 Challenge and losing 3-0, 4-0 in the cadet national finals in 2006.   The year before that, Rappo lost by technical fall in both freestyle and Greco to- you guessed it- David Taylor.

Another wrestlers who could challenge Taylor, perhaps, is Nathan Furches of Kansas.  Furches has a great track record in Fargo, including third-place finishes in the Junior (98) and Cadet (98) weight classes the past two years.  In addition, he will be a huge 105 (an oxymoron, I realize) given that he wrestled 112 this past season.  Furches particularly excels at Greco-Roman, a style he has won convincingly the past two years. In the Greco competition he would likely have to be considered a co-favorite with Taylor, but I think Taylor will beat him decisively in freestyle. 

Two other (mild) threats to Taylor are Shane Young of Pennsylvania and BJ Futrell of Illinois.  Young beat Rappo to win the state tournament this year and was ranked #3 in the nation as a result.  However, Young has received some pretty harsh treatment from both David Taylor and Logan Stieber this year, losing by fall to Taylor at the Super 32 Challenge- and by a 6-0, 5-0 margin to Stieber at FILA Cadet Nationals.  Futrell is an Illinois State Runner-up who finished second to Taylor at Cadet Nationals in 2005- a match which saw Taylor completely demolish him.  Futrell dropped to 7th last year at Cadet Nationals in large part due to a loaded bracket- and was, once again demolished by Taylor (you may be sensing a pattern here).

At the end of the day, there is only one wrestler in the 105 lb. weight class who can push Taylor- Jamie Clark- but he is still a cadet.  We will have to wait until next year to see that match-up again.

PROJECTED ALL-AMERICANS

The following are wrestlers from Ohio who should earn All-American status in the Junior National Freestyle competition, provided they bring their “A-Game”. 

Ben Sergent/Steve Mitcheff, Troy Christian/Elyria (Junior 112)

Defending Junior National Champion Sergent is one of the few true “freestyle specialists” in this state. Sergent had an up and down season last year that included failing to place at Ironman.  As a result, he finished the year rated as the seventh best 112 in the state (see http://www.ohiowrestlingsite.com/articles/article68.php).  However, Sergent’s Fargo resume is arguably surpassed only by that of Taylor and Stieber.  The Troy Christian lightweight finished second in Cadet Freestyle in 2005 before capturing the junior national freestyle title at 105 lbs. last year.

Despite being a surprise champion last year, Sergent stands a legitimate chance to defend his national title.  Traditionally, 112 is a fairly weak weight at the junior level as many of the top wrestlers in the nation at this weight are still cadets (Logan Stieber being the best example).  That is particularly true this year.  In fact, this weight is shockingly weak- there are numerous competitors who were expected to be in there who have not made the trip.  The one exception- that I don’t see Sergent getting past- is Andrew Long of Iowa.  Long has had a brilliant post-season freestyle season including stunning Ohio State Buckeye-to-be Nikko Triggas at Western Regionals.   The other competitor who could give Sergent a very tough battle is Jon Morrison of Illinois.  Morrison was state champ in Illinois this year and is a previous All-American at both the cadet and junior levels.  Others who could pose a threat to a Sergent repeat include Mitcheff (see below), California State Runner-up Kellen Aura, David Klingsheim, Matt Snyder, Tyler Cox, and Ladd Rupp.

It may surprise that Steve Mitcheff is projected to become an All-American after not placing at the Cadet level last year- and finishing a disappointing fifth place in the state tournament this past season.   However, Mitcheff will be one wrestlers in this weight who was also a 112 during the season- i.e. he will be going up against mostly 103’s from this past year.  Moreover, Mitcheff’s failure to place was due in large part to a bad draw, and the weight he competed at last year at the cadet level was actually tougher than this weight will be.

Projected Finish: Sergent- 2nd place, Mitcheff-6th place  Look for Sergent to make his third straight finals appearance opposite Long should they be in opposite brackets.  It would not come as a surprise to see a number of other competitors knock off Sergent, however.  Mitcheff fell to Sergent at Brecksville this year so I do have difficulty seeing him beating Sergent in freestyle, though I’d also be surprised to not see him crack the top eight.

(above): Jedd Moore and Eric Cubberly (shown here in their Brecksville match-up won by Cubberly) should both add Junior National All-American status to their Cadet National Runner-up finishes a year ago. Photo Credit: Bob Tuneberg, Villager News

Eric Cubberly, Pemberville Eastwood (Junior 152)

The Senior-to-be for the Eastwood Eagles would appear to be a sure-fire Junior National All-American coming off a runner-up finish at Cadet National Freestyle and FILA Cadets, as well as a brilliant folkstyle season that saw him win his first state title.    .  Cubberly will be a clear underdog against defending junior national champion Albert White of Illinois and two-time cadet freestyle champion Alex Meade of Delaware.  White was defeated by Thomas Straughn of Perry in the Dream Team Dual, but is devastating in freestyle. He is very difficult to score on and good at wrestling with a lead- so Cubberly cannot allow him to score first if he wants to pull the upset.  The lightning-fast Meade may be even better than White.  Ohio fans have seen a lot of Meade this year, as he won the Ironman (winning a tight 5-4 bout over Coby Boyd of Graham) and FILA Cadets in Akron.  Cubberly did push Meade to the wire at FILA Cadets.

As if that weren’t enough, Oklahoma contributes two outstanding wrestlers here in freestyle specialists Chris Hacker and Dallas Bailey.  Among Hacker’s big freestyle wins was an upset of Lance Palmer last summer at junior duals.  Hacker wrestles a lot of high-scoring, “shoot-out” type bouts, so a match-up with the aggressive Cubberly would be very entertaining.  Hacker also recently defeated cadet and junior national champion Kellen Russell at the Junior Duals (albeit at 145).  Dallas Bailey has established himself as one of the very best rising juniors in the nation after a great summer of wrestling that including stunning Meade at junior duals.  Among other great competitors in this weight who could pose a significant threat to Cubberly are:  P.J. Gillespie of New York, Kyle Cuthbertson of Alabama, (4x state champion) Kevin LeValley of Colorado, Brad Lower of Iowa, and David Johnson of Michigan (who beat Kevin Hardy last year at Fargo).

Projection:  4th place.  Cubberly has a great track record at national competitions, and after the top three, is the next best here (along with Bailey) in my view.

160 lbs.  Kevin Hardy/Jedd Moore, Solon/Marion Pleasant (Junior 160)

Kevin Hardy has not traditionally been noted as a freestyle specialist- in fact, his previous showings in Fargo having been downright dismal when compared to his folkstyle record.  However, that changed this spring, as he chalked up decisive wins over Cubberly, Moore, and Steve Wilson.   The lanky Hardy has seemingly adapted to the freestyle game- by using his leverage to generate exposure points off opponent’s shots. 

One of the top rising seniors in Ohio, Moore is a two-time cadet freestyle All-American (including finishing second to Meade last year at the cadet level) who is coming off a brilliant season in which he claimed his first state title and was rarely pushed.  Moore’s off-season has been a bit disappointing by his standards- as he finished a puzzling 7th at NHSCA Junior Nationals (one year after winning the sophomore event) and lost “swing” matches to Cubberly and Hardy at freestyle state.  I’d look for him to rebound in a big way in Fargo.

Like 152, this is another very solid weight.  The two wrestlers who appear to be out-of-reach of the Ohio duo are Michael Chaires of New York and Scott Winston of New Jersey- both of whom finished fourth last year in Junior Freestyle.  Winston- considered one of the top five seniors in the nation- has yet to lose an official high school match and also finished 2nd at Cadet Nationals in 2005.  A third wrestler here who is not quite as well known- but in my view just may win it- is three-time state champion Andrew Howe of Indiana.   Howe is (for now) one of the best-kept secrets in the nation, due in large part to missing Fargo in 2006 after finishing third in Cadets in 2005.  As a point of reference, Howe posted a win of 6-0, 6-0 against Division I state runner-up Jesse Dong at Central Regionals.  Among other wrestlers who are likely at approximately the same level as Hardy and Moore are returning junior national All-American Chris Bullins, four-time state champion Kyle Deberry of Arizona, Alec Ortiz of Oregon (fourth at Cadet Nationals in 2005), Paul Paddock (national runner-up to Colt Sponseller who is more noted as a folkstyle specialist), and Travis Rutt. 

Projected Finishes:  Jedd Moore: 6th   Kevin Hardy:  7th  A top three finish seems unlikely given the trio of Winston, Chaires, and Howe. 

Cody Magrum, Oak Harbor, (Junior 189)

I’d be very surprised to not see two-time state champion Magrum become an All-American this year.  Magrum was 4-1 at Junior Nationals last summer (with a win over All-American Ambrose who later beat Honeycutt) before injury defaulting.  That showing was despite being a very small 189.  Now, Magrum returns as a legitimate 189- and is coming off a great Disney Duals where he lost only in overtime to fellow two-time Division II state champ John Weakley of CVCA.   While this is a “solid” weight class, there are some key no-shows that have paved the way for Magrum here (defending junior national champ Clayton Foster the most notable).  There are only two competitors, on paper, who seem to be a clear step ahead of Magrum.   The first of these is Sonny Yohn of Colorado, who has finished 2nd and 4th in the Junior Freestyle competition the past two years, as well as 2nd at Senior Nationals.  Yohn has twice beaten Chris Honeycutt of St. Edward.  The second of these is Jerome Ward of Illinois.  Ward finished third in the Junior Freestyle division in 2006. 

Wrestlers who are on a “comparable” level to Magrum would include defending Cadet National Champ Ryland Geiger of Oregon, returning Junior National All-American (8th place) Brodie Ambrose, Erich Schmidtke of Washington, and the California duo of Kyle Bergstedt and Hunter Collins.  Collins defeated Magrum 3-1 at NHSCA Junior Nationals.

Projected Finish:  4th place.  However, should Magrum make the finals I would not be stunned.

The Big Men:  Cameron Wade/Brendon Barlow/John Hiles  (Junior 285)

Wade could be headed for a rematch of last year’s Junior National Freestyle Finals against Dom Bradley of Missouri.  Wade also previously finished second at the Cadet National Freestyle Tournament in 2005.  He will have his hands full in climbing the top spot.  Heavyweight is traditionally not the strongest of weights in Fargo but this year is somewhat of an exception.  Also in the field is Senior National Champion Jarrod Trice of Michigan.  Trice defeated both Wade and Brendon Barlow at Senior Nationals (which he won), as well as beating John Hiles and Jesse Campbell at Disney Duals. Safe to say he has Ohio’s number at this point.  Ironically, Trice failed to place last year at Junior Nationals despite defeating eventual national champion Bradley in the second round. 

In addition to Bradley and Trice, Junior National All-American Elijah Madison of Missouri will be in the hunt as will Tucker Lane of Colorado (who defeated Wade at Senior Nationals but lost to Barlow) and very tough 215 Christian Brantley of Illinois.   Atticus Disney of Kansas and Eric Thompson of Illinois are two other formidable competitors.  Senior Brandon Barlow would have likely placed last year if not for a terrible draw (he lost to the champion and third place finisher) and should definitely crack the top eight this year.  Barlow defeated Lane in folkstyle at NHSCA.  I’d also look for Hiles- who won freestyle states over Barlow and Ben Kuhar- to make All-American Status should his health not be an issue. 

Projected Finish: Cameron Wade-3rd, Brendon Barlow- 5th, John Hiles- 6th.  Any of these three could be a finalist, but could just as easily fail to place.  

 “ON THE BUBBLE”

The following wrestlers are “on the bubble” for All-American status- with the right draw and a hot weekend, they could garner All-American honors, but there is little to no margin for error. 

Alex Minnard, Fairfield Union (Junior 105)- It may surprise to see a wrestler who has not yet made the state finals picked as a possible junior national All-American, but this weight is very thin after the top five of Taylor, Rappo, Furches, Young, and Futrell (none of whom I see Minnard beating)- as many of the top competitors in the 105 lb. division are still competing at the cadet level.  In fact, there are an anemic 33 entrants in this weight class.  Minnard previously came up just short of placing at the FILA Cadet Nationals in Akron in the 110 lb. weight class (a weight that was probably stronger than what he will see in Fargo).  Outside of the top five here, none are out of reach for Minnard.

Brad Squire/Kyle Lang, (Medina/Brecksville) (Junior 125)- I’ve rated Squire and Lang as “on the bubble” candidates for All-American status, but in truth, their chances may be pretty slim.  Both are former cadet All-Americans (Lang was a runner-up in 2004) but they are competing in an absolutely stacked weight class.  Frankly, they may need to not only be at the top of their game but also need some “help” in terms of upsets.  There are five wrestlers here who have won national titles in Fargo in either freestyle or Greco-Roman (Eric Grajales, Anthony Valles, Ironman Champ Boris Novachkov, Nate Moore- who defeated Collin Palmer-, and Matt McDonough), and a sixth wrestler, Dan White of New Jersey, who may be the best of the group.  Others who are favored to beat Squire and Lang “on paper” are former cadet All-Americans (and high placewinners) Jarrod Garnett (who defeated Brian Stephens last year in Fargo but lost to Collin Palmer), Ian Paddock (who beat Squire handily last year in Fargo), John Trumbetti (the NJ wrestler who beat Aaron Hart at the Beast last year) and Andy Pokorny.  Three-time Wisconsin State Champion TJ Wunnicke will also be in the mix.   That’s 11 wrestlers who will probably be favored over Squire and Lang.

On the positive side, Ohio wrestling fans know how good Kyle Lang can be when he gets on a roll (see the 2007 state tournament Consolations, or the 2004 Cadet Freestyle Nationals), and Squire has a mistake-free “control” style that I think translates well to freestyle.  Last summer Squire opened up with six straight wins in Fargo before running into Tony Ramos (ranked as the #1 112 in the nation this year) and Paddock.  The fact that Squire was able to place at that 112 lb. weight was impressive considering neither Steve Mitcheff, Nick Sulzer, or Zach Neibert managed to do so.  Look for both to advance deep into the tournament, but fall a bit short of All-American status.  Again, the draw will be extremely important for both wrestlers.

Brian Stephens, St. Paris Graham (Junior 130)- I’m very impressed with Stephens.  I think he should have won state this year (and watched him hammer state champ Brian Dean at freestyle states) and I look for him to win the next two years- especially if he goes 130 where he will not face Skonieczny or Sulzer.   Despite that, I think Brian Stephens, like Lang and Squire, is a year away from junior national All-American status.  One year after finishing fifth in the Cadet Freestyle Division, it does not bode well that Collin Johnston of Pennsylvania looks to be about the 4th or 5th best wrestler in this weight freestyle-wise, and he beat Collin Palmer- who is clearly a level above Stephens at this point.  Others who will be clearly favored against Stephens are junior national runner-up Tyler Graff of Colorado, returning Junior National All-Americans Kelly Kubec and Marc Ballweg, three-time Michigan State Champ Mark Weber, Dalton Jensen, and Max Ortega. That’s seven wrestlers- and I think Stephens has a good chance against anyone else- so with good “karma” he could grab his second straight “AA” finish in Fargo, but he will need some breaks.

Chase Skonieczny/Neil Birt Walsh Jesuit/Lakewood St. Edward (Junior 135)- Last summer, Neil Birt shocked the pundits by placing 8th in Junior Freestyle despite failing to place at the state tournament.  If he could do it a year ago, it would seem, a year older and better, that he has at least a shot to grab All-American honors again.  It would logically follow that if Birt can do it, so can Skonieczny, since he defeated Birt convincingly this year. 

It will be far from an easy road, however.  In fact, this may very well be the toughest weight class in the tournament.  There are a group of seven at this weight who are a step ahead of the rest of the field in my view: Norman Richmond (my projected champ here), Max Shanaman (Blair Wrestler who beat Ben Jordan and nearly teched Andrew Gasber at Ironman), Vincent Varela (who split with Jeffrey Pelton this year), Jason Chamberlain, Trevor Melde, Craig Wilson and Cody Marcicki.  Unless one of the top seven stumble, Skonieczny and Birt will need the right draw or a big upset to grab All-American honors.  Skonieczny was close last year- winning four matches (including a very impressive victory over Chris Diaz) before being eliminated by Keith Sulzer- so it’s certainly not impossible.  Others who are at a similar level to Skonieczny include Michael Robinson, Josh Kratovil, Jim Belleville, CJ Napier (cadet national champ in 2007), and Matt Bryan.

(above): A Junior National All-American finish would surely take away some of the sting of this state finals loss (versus Germaine Lindsay) for Shawn Harris of St. Edward. Photo Credit: Bob Tuneberg, Villager News

Shawn Harris/Aaron Sulzer - Lakewood St. Edward/ Holy Name (Junior 140)

Like 135, the 140 lb. weight is the one of the very toughest in the tournament.  Right off the bat you have defending junior national champs in Kellen Russell and Michael Mangrum (both were also cadet national champions the year before, and Russell won Senior Nationals as well).  Ohio fans got to see what Russell could do in matches in which he dismantled Skonieczny and Birt.  Most recently, Russell defeated Albert White, another defending champ and the co-favorite at 152.  While Russell is a technical virtuoso from all positions, Mangrum is a hammer who throws caution to the wind.  Just a half-step behind this duo- and likely out of the reach of Harris and Sulzer are the trio of Luke Silver, Tyler Nauman, and Walter Peppelman.  Silver looked simply awesome at the Dream Team Dual against Matt Reedy, but it should be noted that Harris did beat him last year in Fargo. Nauman and Peppelman are outstanding but more noted for folkstyle than freestyle prowess.  There are a number of other wrestlers here who would likely be slightly favored over either Harris or Sulzer so both will need to be at their best.  However, the fact that Sulzer finished 4-2 (losing only to Mike Grey and Kelly Kubec) and Harris finished 5-2 a year ago (including the big win win over Silver) is encouraging.  Of the wrestlers listed as “on the bubble” I think Harris’ chances are the best.

Steve Wilson, Marion Pleasant (Junior 171)

Wilson’s situation is comparable to that of guys like Brian Stephens and Chase Skonieczny.   There are about 5-6 guys in the weight who are clearly ahead of him “on paper”.  I feel very confident that he is one of the top 12 wrestlers in the weight, but whether he cracks the top eight is questionable.  The big four at his weight, in my view, are Mike Benefiel (four-time state champ who was spectacular at Ironman), Kirk Smith (defending junior national champ, FILA Jr.National Champ, and Senior National Champ), Jordan Blanton (a Junior National All-American whose only career folkstyle loss is to Benefiel), and Corey Peltier (a freestyle specialist who has won the Cadet National and FILA Cadet Nationals and wrestles for Blair Academy in-season). 

(above): Jeremy Foster of Eastwood seeks to show the nation that he is as good as Ohio fans already know he can be. Photo Credit: Bob Tuneberg, Villager News.

Jeremy Foster, Pemberville Eastwood (Junior 189)

Foster is one of the most talented wrestlers in this state, no question. Despite his lack of freestyle experience, he is one the guy that the favorites at this weight do not want to draw (as Dustin Kilgore and Cody Magrum can attest to).  However, the big question mark in my mind is whether he has the consistency to place in a tournament like this.  I look for Foster to have a breakthrough tournament this week- but then again, I’ve thought that (and been wrong) before.  This is also the first year that Foster has done any freestyle to speak of- but I think he will make the transition seamlessly. 

Ben Kuhar/Justin Powell,  Lakewood St. Edward/Youngstown Boardman (Junior 285)

Former two-time cadet national freestyle champ Kuhar surely must be considered in the hunt for All-American honors.  He will be another five months removed from the injury difficulties which have plagued him- and he does have that great track record in freestyle and nearly beat Hiles at freestyle states.  Justin Powell did well at junior duals in freestyle last year- and I think he will make the transition to heavyweight well.  In most years, I’d have both of these guys down as projected All-Americans but this is a very tough year at heavyweight.

DARK HORSE CONTENDERS

Who will be this year’s Neil Birt???  If I were that good, I’d quit my job and move to Vegas- but I think here are some of the wrestlers that could stand the best chance to be this year’s surprise All-American. 

Nathan Westfall, Mentor Lake Catholic (Junior 112)

Pat Zamaria, Brecksville (Junior 119)

Zach Neibert/Danny Genetin, St. Paris Graham/Massillon Perry (Junior 125)

Tommy Pretty/Jacob Vaughan, Cincinnati Elder/Columbus DeSales (Junior 130)

Josh Speelman/Lee Schumaker, Mansfield Madison/Arcadia (Junior 140)

Jesse Dong, Westerville North (Junior 145)

Chris Kline/Zach Goins, Westerville North/Elyria (Junior 152)

Keith Witt/Ross Tice (Oak Harbor/Brookfield) (Junior 171)

Dan Canfield, (Lakota East) (Junior 189)

Orlando Scales/Andrew Tumlin/Tyler Rasho (Junior 215)

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