On the Brink: Ohio Wrestling Site Breaks Down the Top Twelve match-ups of the Upcoming Season (Part I of a two-part series)

As summer closes and fall begins, what gets this writer pumped-up about the upcoming season year after year is not the team races, but rather anticipating how the big match-ups will unfold.  In a few years, few will be able to recall what team finished where (with the exception of St. Edward’s dual meet victory over Blair that clinched the national title), but few wrestling fans who saw the matches will forget the Sponseller/Nemec, Roddy/Kilgore, Taylor/Stieber, or Jameson/Habat bouts.  As this season nears, the picture is starting to come into clearer focus as to what the big match-ups will be for the 2007-2008 season.   The following is the first of a two-part series that will address the Top 12 match-ups.

(above): One of the biggest questions of the year will be whether Eastwood Senior Jeremy Foster can put it together at the state tournament. Photo Credit: Bob Tuneberg, Villager News

Match-up #12: Cody Magrum vs. Jeremy Foster (189, STATE TOURNAMENT)

It occurs to me that I have somehow cursed Jeremy Foster.  I’ve been extremely impressed with this wrestler ever since he finished 4th in the state as a freshman at 152 lbs.  (losing only to Dave Rella and Josh Rohler).  I’ve seen him put together some huge performances- including a fall over Dustin Kilgore.  Yet, every time I predict him that he is about to join state’s elite, what follows is a dismal performance (most notably in his 0-2 at the state tourney his sophomore year).  Perhaps it is the wrestling equivalent of the infamous “Sport Illustrated Jinx.” Last year, he blew through Cody Magrum at Districts by an 8-0 margin, and it seemed to me that surely Foster was ready to capture his first state title.  However, he was instead beaten by David Thompson of Graham and settled for third, while Magrum won his second state title. 

The duo will both move to 189- for what should be two more great match-ups this season.  Foster is a zen master of funk second only to Tony Jameson.  Moreover, Foster is just a great athlete, plain and simple.  The issue with him, is, as always, will he wrestle up to his potential?   Magrum is an outstanding technician who knows how to win and steadily improves.  If Foster is the hare, Magrum is the tortoise, always at the finish line first. Magrum had a good off-season, including just one loss at Disney (in overtime, to John Weakley) and finishing as a junior national All-American.  Frankly, I thought the OSU recruit might finish a bit higher than he did in the Fargodome, but an All-American finish is never anything to be ashamed of. 

Foster and Magrum are 1-1 against each other thus far and I would be stunned to see both matches go the same wrestler this year.  That 8-0 loss has got to weigh on the two-time state champions mind, but Magrum just seems to be able to get it done in “the Schott.”

OWS Pick:  Foster dec. Magrum at Districts, but Magrum wins over Foster in the state finals.

Matchup #11: Hunter Stieber vs. Gus Sako (103, Ironman)- The stock of both of these wrestlers went way up in my eyes after Fargo.  I had projected them 4th and 5th in a loaded weight class, but instead, Hunter Stieber dominated on his way to the Gold, and Sako came back to the Buckeye State with hard-earned bronze.  Stieber defeated youth wrestling legend Nico Megaludis of Pennsylvania, and then handled Jesse Thielke easily in the finals.  Though he is half-way to matching his brother Logan’s feat of being a two-time cadet national champion, Hunter Stieber has a style much different than his older brother.  Lanky and less reliant on power- stylistically he is more similar to David Taylor than Logan Stieber. 

Despite Stieber’s complete dominance in Fargo, Gus Sako of St. Edward did defeat him in two straight periods in a prior freestyle tournament last spring, and had an outstanding showing in Fargo himself.  Sako also defeated Megaludis at Fargo easily, and was seldom pushed with the exception of his loss to Thielke.  Following a year where he was among the state’s best 103’s, but forced to sit behind Jamie Clark, he will be hungry to compete this year. 

Clearly, both of these wrestlers should rank among the top five nationally next year at this weight, and should Mark Rappo of Pennsylvania and Alan Waters of Missouri go up to 112, their likely Ironman match-up could even decide who is ranked #1 in the nation. While Sako has won their most recent match-up, at the end of day I have to pick the Cadet National Champion in a close bout.

OWS Pick: Hunter Stieber dec. Gus Sako 5-4

Matchup #10: Jedd Moore vs. Eric Cubberly (160, BRECKSVILLE, DUAL MEET)-

This match would certainly make my top five list if it had not happened so many times already!  Last year, Moore arguably got the better of their series, as he won by fall at the dual and lost by a point at Brecksville.  Nevertheless, Cubberly has won three of their last four meetings, including the most recent at freestyle states.  Moore placed higher in Fargo (4th to Cubberly’s 7th), but Cubberly came through far tougher pool.  Most notably, he posted a win over Alex Meade, widely regarded as among the nation top five seniors.

This match-up features the smooth style of Moore against the “attack dog” style of Cubberly.  To some extent, I don’t think either of these seniors, who are both young for their grade, have gotten their due.  In fact, Cubberly and Moore round out my top five Ohio seniors along with the top trio of Boyd, Jameson, and Roddy (note: listed in alphabetical order, not rank).  I have both a bit ahead of Magrum, Jordan, and Spicel at this point. 

Look for these two dead-even wrestlers to continue their back-and-forth rivalry.

OWS Pick: Eric Cubberly and Jedd Moore split their two matches once again.

(above): Brian Roddy will be tested by the nation's best freshman, Chris Phillips of Monroeville. Photo Credit: Bob Tuneberg, Villager News

Match-up #9  Brian Roddy vs. Chris Phillips (IRONMAN)

It could very well be said that this match should rank much higher than #9.  Brian Roddy can very well lay claim to being the top wrestler in Ohio right now, following a brilliant season that culminated in avenging his 2006 state finals loss to Dustin Kilgore.  Roddy notched dominating victories over PA State Champ Rob Waltko, 3x state runner-up Derek Foore, Dean Gaier, and most memorably, against former cadet national champ Corey Peltier in the Blair/St. Edward dual.  He also had a win over very tough New Jersey state champion Trongone.  Much like wrestling against a chain-saw, Roddy mowed down opponent after opponent last year and was clearly among the top five in the nation at his weight class. With arch-rival Kilgore gone, and Cody Magrum and Jeremy Foster headed to 189, this season should have been a coronation for Roddy in which he had no challengers (at least from an Ohio perspective).  And yet, while that will most definitely be the case as he wins his second state title- at Ironman, Roddy faces the most unlikely of challenges- a freshman from Monroeville.  

Throughout the past two years, I’ve heard numerous stunning reports of three-timeJunior High State Champion Chris Phillip’s amazing achievements against much older wrestlers in the wrestling room.  At first, the reports were so incredible that I dismissed them as exaggerations.  However, the reports kept coming, from different and unbiased sources.  The seventh grader regularly wrestled a Division I state champion dead-even.  The Monroeville eighth grader completely dominated a state runner-up who was considerably bigger.  The eighth grader was giving one of Ohio’s best all he could handle in workouts.  Everyone relaying these stories to me had the something in common- they recounted what they saw almost in disbelief themselves. 

This year, we all saw first hand that Phillips wasn’t just ready to dominate at the junior high scene (in three years at Junior High State, the closest that anyone came to him was a 12-0 win over Andrew Gasber), but also at the high school level as well.  In his first year of freestyle, Phillips not only won cadet nationals, but dominated against some of the best rising sophomores and juniors in the nation, culminating in a 6-0, 4-0 finals win.  In case anyone was going to chalk up his title to a weak weight class, Phillips also dominated both the cadet national champ at 160 (Padua’s Riley Kilroy) and 189 (Jonathan Becker of New Jersey) at FILA Cadet Nationals.  Couple that with a great Disney Duals, where he lost just once and defeated the likely preseason #1 in Division II,  Nick Mills, by a score of 11-6 (despite bumping up a weight class) and I have to conclude that Phillips could be one of the top ten 171’s in the nation next year.  To hopefully put a side issue to rest once and for all- this is a fact- when Chris Phillips graduates from high school, he will be 18 years old.

So the question is, is Phillips ready for Brian Roddy?  In my view, the answer to that question is simply “no”.   There is no question that Phillips is a brilliant leg attack artist.  If Roddy has a weakness that we’ve seen in the past, it’s that opponents (mainly just Kilgore) have gotten to his legs.  His offense is a lot better than his defense.  However, while I think we see Phillips get a takedown or two, as the match progresses, I think the relentless physicality and power of Roddy will be too much for the freshman to handle, and I see Roddy pulling away in the second half of what should be a barnburner. 

Of course, all this presumes that we even see the match-up take place at Ironman.  An excellent source tells me that there is about a 50-50 chance that two-time California state champ Jason Welch- widely regarded as the nation’s best senior- will be at 171 this year.   In truth I think that Phillips may match up better with Welch (who is more of a finesse wrestler) than Roddy, but regardless, the Monroeville freshman would have to be considered a long-shot to make the finals should he end up with Welch in his bracket.  Also in the weight should be former cadet national champ Peltier of Blair Academy.  Peltier scored a “touch fall” against Phillips in freestyle this spring- in a match that Phillips was dominating to that point.  Having seen their prior match, in my view, Phillips will beat Peltier in folkstyle….though Peltier’s leverage could present difficulties for him on the mat.  Certainly, this weight will be worth the price of admission at Ironman.

OWS Pick: Brian Roddy  dec. Chris Phillips 13-8 (in what will likely be the only loss of Phillips career).

Match-up #8 Steve Luke vs. David Erwin (NCAA 174)

I have long believed that David Erwin (now of Penn State) has not gotten his due from Ohio Wrestling fans.  The two-time state champion completely dominated all comers in Ohio for his final two years, save for the odd loss to Josh Rohler, but his no-show at Senior Nationals followed by an underachieving Fargo has, I think, caused many to underrate him.  Erwin did defeat Junior National Champ Rocky Cozart, Dave Rella, and completely dominate Mac Lewnes on his way to winning Ironman and Beast of the East his senior season, before lambasting the field at state for the second straight year. Erwin followed that up with an excellent year for a true freshman- climbing as high as #10 in the rankings- before the wheels came off at Big Ten.  Now, he has taken a redshirt year, and returns after winning University Nationals this spring at 174 lbs. (over another Ohioan, Mike Miller of Central Michigan University.   I think Erwin will surprise many this year- and emerge as a true contender for the national title. 

Steve Luke (now wrestling for the University of Michigan), himself a 3x state champion, 4x state finalist, and Senior National Champion for Massillon Perry, moved up two weight classes from 157 to 174 last year without missing a beat.  One of the most difficult wrestlers to score on in the country, he entered the NCAA Tournament ranked #3 in the nation and finished sixth for his first All-American honors.  This year, he will without question be one of the leading contenders for an NCAA title. 

While I think personally think that Erwin has a lot more weapons, I think he is going to have some difficulty in unleashing them against the stronger Luke.  I think that Luke gets the only takedown of this bout and shuts Erwin down the rest of the match. 

OWS Pick: Steve Luke dec. David Erwin 3-2.

(above): As this photo demonstrates, Lance Palmer always seemed to be in the right place at the right time last year on his way to finishing 4th in the NCAA's as a true frosh. Photo Credit: Bob Tuneberg, Villager News

Match-up #7:  Collin Palmer vs. Richie Spicel vs. David Habat (140 lbs.) (IRONMAN/PERRY DISTRICT/STATE TOURNAMENT)

Should it come to pass that Tony Jameson ends up at 145, Richie Spicel and David Habat will likely find themselves between a rock and a hard place.  While the conventional wisdom holds that Collin Palmer will compete this season at 135 lbs., an excellent source indicates to me that Palmer will have some difficulty in making this weight, and could be at 140 lbs. instead.  That would be what one might call “worst case scenario” for Spicel and Habat- either of whom should be among the top ten in the nation next year in my view.  They would have to face either two-time state champion Collin Palmer- who has never been seriously tested by any Ohio wrestler- or three-time state champion Jameson. 

My bet is that should Jameson go 145, Spicel and Habat may elect to try their chances at 140 against Palmer.  While Habat did defeat Jameson with a brilliant performance in their first bout (see http://www.ohiowrestlingsite.com/articles/article63.php), the 13-1 loss in their match at “the Schott” cannot give him cause for optimism.  Similarly, Spicel was unable to get much going against “Tony J” in an 8-4 state finals loss.

It’s almost difficult to really envision this match-up as Palmer is moving up so much in weight.  In my view, Spicel is more likely to keep the match close against Palmer, but Habat would stand the better chance at an upset.  I picture Palmer winning a very conventional 5-2 bout over the difficult-to-score-on Spicel in which he gets two takedowns and does some very solid riding.  However, Spicel would have a chance to get on the scoreboard with his explosive fireman’s and would be very difficult for Palmer to turn.  In short, Palmer is going to have to work the full six minutes for the victory. 

A match-up between Palmer and brilliant sophomore Habat would certainly be interesting.  Absolutely crucial in this bout would be the first takedown.  Both of these wrestlers are very tough on top but have sometimes struggled to get off the bottom.  In short, I don’t think that either can escape from the other.  If Habat could strike with one of his blinding ankle picks and ride out the first period, he could take control of the match much as he did against Jameson at Perry.  However, in the more likely scenario, that Palmer gets the first takedown, he transitions to his turns (usually with the boots) better than anybody in this state (if not nation) and I think there is a very real possibility that this one turns into a blowout. 

I should put a disclaimer on this match-up by stating that at this point, it is very, very difficult to say for sure how the middleweights will shake out.  It’s entirely possible that Palmer will end up at 135 with one or both of these either wrestlers at 145 lbs.

OWS Pick: Collin Palmer dec. Richie Spicel 5-2, Palmer dec. David Habat 8-1.

Match-up #6 Lance Palmer vs. Ryan Lang (NCAA 149)

Five years ago, Lance Palmer and Ryan Lang were teammates.  Lang was the Senior 135 who destroyed everyone in the nation on his way to adding a Senior National title to the junior national title he won the year before, as well as becoming St. Edward first 4x state champion.  Palmer was the dominant freshman 103 who would go on to be St. Edward’s second 4x state champion.  At that point, it was difficult to envision that St. Edward’s two four-timers would one day square off, but it appears that may be the case.  Ryan Lang, now representing Northwestern University, will most likely move up from the 141 lb. class it appears (where he has placed 4th and 2nd in the nation the past two seasons) and be in the mix in the simply unbelievable Big Ten field at 149 lbs.  Of course, this will also mean rematches for the duo with another four-timer from Ohio, Dustin Schlatter (rhetorical question: has Ohio ever had three wrestlers of this caliber in a single weight?).

The contrast of styles here is stark.  While Lang has become more conventional over the course of his collegiate career, he remains one of the nation’s premier funk artists (for one of the most action-packed bouts- and one of the worst haircuts- you will ever see, go here to watch Lang’s NCAA Quartherfinal: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGMIkDxY05Q).  

Lance Palmer could not be more different.  Unnaturally powerful, Palmer is almost impossible to create scoring opportunities on and carefully chooses his high-percentage attacks.  The duo do share the similarity that both are outstanding on top, though with very different approaches- Palmer grinding people with the lethal power half, Lang using his finesse and incredible mat sense to find scoring opportunities.   We have seen Palmer may some difficulty with funky wrestlers before (Matt Dunn in the 2005 Ironman, though Palmer is much better now than then), whereas if you look at Lang’s track record, it’s not so much power that gives him difficulty as wrestlers who utilize great position (Cooperman, Schlatter, Frishkorn).    Couple that with the fact that Lang is three years older and an NCAA Finalist already, and he is my choice by a narrow margin. 

At the end of the day, it will depend, I think, on who can set the “pace” of the match.  A low-scoring bout likely goes to Palmer, a shoot-out goes to Lang. 

OWS Pick: Ryan Lang dec. Lance Palmer 8-7

Stay Tuned for Part II of this Series, where OWS breaks down the top five match-ups! 

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