THE IRONMAN: LET THE SHOW BEGIN (PART II OF A TWO-PART SERIES)

(above): Eye on the Gold: In a great field, Coby Boyd has his eye strictly on the Yellow Medal. Photo Credit, Bob Tuneberg, Villager News.

IRONMAN 140 PREVIEW

This weight was severely weakened by Richie Spicel and #1 seed Dak Adamson scratching due to injury.  As it stands now, I am picking Holy Name state champion Aaron Sulzer over PA “AA” state champ Jordan Shields in a close, low scoring bout.   The greatest threat to Sulzer may be a freshman, John Guzzo from Blair Academy.  Guzzo is generally considered one of the nation’s top five freshman  (along with Chris Phillips and Hunter Stieber of Monroeville, Kenny Courts of PA, and Destin McCauley of MN) having placed third at the cadet freestyle nationals last summer.  Shields won his last three matches at state last year by a combined four points, so he knows how to win the close ones.   He could very well be your champion here.

My upset special here is #10 seed Chris Burns (Troy Christian, D-III #2) knocking off #2 seed Neil Birt (St. Edward, D-I #2) in the quarterfinals.  Burns struggled at state last year on his way to a 7th place finish, but had a good enough regular season to be ranked 2nd in the state despite wrestling up one if not two weight classes from his optimal weight (due to having state champion teammates at 135 and 140).  He also have a win over Matt Stephens of Graham at the Graham Preview.  I wonder if Birt might not be light for this weight. 

OWS FINALS PROJECTION:  AARON SULZER DEC. JORDAN SHIELDS 3-2

PROJECTED OHIO PLACEWINNERS: Chris Burns, Neil Birt, Matt Stephens (Graham, D-II #3)

IRONMAN 145 PREVIEW

SEEDED WRESTLERS
1. Mario Mason (Blair)
2. Ben Jordan (Graham, D-II #1)
3. Vince Ramos (IL)
4. Jon Burns (NC)
5. Richie Dehnz (FL)
6. David Habat (St. Ignatius, D-I #2)
7. Zach Toal (Troy Christian, D-III #1)
8. Savva Kostis (NC)
12. Zach Goins (Elyria, D-I #3)
14. Seamus Szucs (Holy Name, D-II #3)

In some ways this could be the most interesting weight class in the tournament.   Consider the path that Zach Goins, ranked #1 at 152 lbs. in Division I before recently dropping (inexplicably) to 145, must face:  On Friday night he will face a wrestler (Dehnz) that is a two-time state champion, and brings a 120 match winning streak to the Ironman.  Should he snap that win streak, he will then face Jon Burns of North Carolina- the 2007 NHSCA Juniors National Champion.  That’s just to advance to the semifinals, where he would face the nation’s #1 ranked 145, Mario Mason!

Despite the numerous great contenders here, I have a difficult time seeing anyone other than Mario Mason emerging as the champion.  Probably the most technically polished wrestler in the nation on his feet, Mason has won everything there is to win at the high school level, including Junior Nationals and Cadet Nationals in Fargo, the Ironman and the Beast of the East, National Preps, and NHSCA Juniors.  Last year he ran the table, going unbeaten despite facing an array of nationally ranked opponents.  The one style I Mason may have difficulty with (sheer power, think Lance Palmer at the 2005 Ironman) clearly does not fit Ben Jordan. 

Really, it’s a battle for second place here.  There are three competitors who are equally outstanding in the other bracket in my view:  Jordan, Vince Ramos, and David Habat.  Ramos is one of the nation’s best wrestlers to not win a state title yet- as he has been in some incredibly tough weight classes in Illinois the last two years.  He has been a cadet and junior national all-american, however.  As a point of reference, Ramos won by fall at last year’s Ironman over state champion Zach Toal and also over state runner-up Joe Newland of Graham. Ohio fans know David Habat well.  One of the best freshman middleweights this writer has ever seen, Habat is the total package- lightning fast ankle pick, great scrambling ability, and an outstanding rider.  His one “Achilles heel” that I have seen is that he is not great from the bottom.  That is not necessarily a weakness that I can see anyone here exposing, however.  Ramos was beaten by Jesse Dong this summer in Fargo, however (he was also beaten 7-6 at Ironman by Germaine Lindsey).  Before Dong’s departure for 152, I had Habat ever so slightly ahead of Dong.  On that admittedly paper-thin basis, I’m going with Habat to prevail here. 

A Habat win over Ramos will likely set up a Jordan-Habat semifinals.  This will be one of the most interesting match-ups of the weekend.  My first reaction was to pick Jordan here because of superb ability to win close, low-scoring bouts by wrestling mistake-free.  However, upon further reflection, in a bout where every point will count, and the wrestlers are equal on their feet, the advantage may go to the stronger rider.  This, in my view, is David Habat.  I have Habat winning 4-3 over the 2x state champion.

I would be remiss if I did mention that Jordan must first get past Troy Christian sophomore Zach Toal to make the semifinals- and this is by no means a sure thing.  Growing from 112 to 140 between his freshman and sophomore year, Toal struggled just a bit at first but really adjusted well (to say the least) down the stretch, beating former state champion Josh Falk three straight times.  Look for him to take Jordan to the wire and place in this great field.

OWS FINALS PROJECTION:  Mario Mason dec. David Habat 9-4

PROJECTED OHIO PLACEWINNERS:  Ben Jordan, Zach Toal, Zach Goins

IRONMAN 152 PREVIEW

This is the third weight class that can possibly be called “toughest in the tournament (the others being 112 and 145)  At press time, the seeding at this weight was still in question as #6 seed Brandon Rolnick had scratched, while nationally ranked Johnny Koepp of Bishop Lynch was now in the tournament.  Presumably, this means (assuming Koepp will be seeded 3rd or 4th) that we will see a state finals rematch between Coby Boyd and Kirk Tank… in the quarterfinals. 

Based on Koepp entering the tournament, I think the seeds will be as follows:

1. Alex Meade (DE)
2. Coby Boyd (Graham, D-II #1)
3. Zac Cibula (WI)
4. Johnny Koepp (TX)
5. Zak Mastro (FL)
6. Cory Casady (CO)
7. Kirk Tank (Oak Harbor, D-II #2)
8. Jared Kusar (CVCA, D-III #2)
9. Eric Gobin (Moeller, D-I #4)

The top four are all nationally ranked competitors.  Ironically, it is #1 seed Alex Meade who has the worst draw of the four in my view.  Look for Jared Kusar to rebound in a big way from last year’s unthinkable 7th place state finish.  People have forgotten about Kusar, but that is a mistake.  Last year at state was an aberration, remember that Kusar had a win over two-time state champion Thomas Straughn and took him to overtime in the their second meeting.  Kusar also scored a technical fall and a major decision over Colton Collett (3rd in Division II).  His power could cause problems for the Meade though an upset seems somewhat unlikely if Meade is on top of his game. 

Coby Boyd of St. Paris Graham faces one landmine after another on his quest for an Ironman crown.  First, he has a state finals rematch with Tank in the quarters.  I look for a repeat of history here….maybe not a fall, but a Boyd win.  Then, Boyd faces 3x state champion Zac Cibula of Wisconsin or Johnny Koepp of Bishop Lynch.  Of the two, I’d rather face Cibula (though it’s tough to argue with state champ all three years).   I think we see a rematch of last year’s 145 lb. final between Boyd and Meade (won by Meade 6-4).  In last year’s bout, Coby Boyd took it to Meade right from the opening whistle, taking him down quickly and nearly scoring back points.  From there, he proceeded to wrestle more defensively, waiting for Meade to shoot- a bad strategy, I think against a wrestler that quick and Meade converted on two double leg takedowns.  I look for Boyd to have learned his lesson from that bout and score revenge on Saturday night.  Since the Ironman loss Boyd has been unstoppable (save for the bizarre loss by fall to Jeb Pencil on a quick headlock), defeating 3x state champion Kevin Hardy and 4x Missouri State Champ Shane Nay and of course scoring the fall in the state finals.  Reportedly much stronger than he was a year ago (a scary prospect it would seem), you know he’s been focused on this bout for a long time.

Besides Kusar, I think Corey Casady of Colorado is the biggest threat to the top four here.  Casady defeated Toal at last year’s Ironman 7-5 before dropping a 6-5 bout to Division I state champion Germaine Lindsay.

OWS FINALS PROJECTION:    COBY BOYD DEC. ALEX MEADE 6-5

PROJECTED OHIO PLACEWINNERS: Jared Kusar, Kirk Tank

(above): Eric Cubberly (shown here at Brecksville against Division III state champ Jedd Moore) is a solid favorite in the 160 lb. weight class. Photo Credit, Bob Tuneberg, Villager News.

IRONMAN 160 PREVIEW

SEEDED WRESTLERS
1. Eric Cubberly (Eastwood, D-II #1)
2. Sam Rakes (VA)
3. Jared King (VA)
4. Josh Condon (GA)
5. Trey Edmunds (NV)
6.  Andrew Gasber (St. Edward, D-I #6 at 145)
7. Justin Curtice (UT)
8. Clint Hadley (FL)
10. Riley Kilroy (Padua, D-II #3)
12. Adam Hogue (Blair Academy, formerly of Twinsburg)
14. James Mannier (Graham, D-II #4)

At first glance, my reaction was to say that Cubberly was almost a lock here (a very dangerous word at Ironman) with Meade at 152, especially given Cubberly’s recent Super 32 win over Scott Winston (Junior Natonal Champion from New Jersey who has yet to lose a high school match).  However, a closer look reveals that there are two outstanding opponents that Cubberly will have to go through to seize the golden chalice here.  #4 seed Josh Condon hails from Georgia- not exactly thought of as a wrestling Mecca- but the fact is that he placed third in Cubberly’s weight at Super 32, and in impressive fashion.  Condon, who has a style that is almost eerily similar to Cubberly’s, lost by only a single point to Winston on his way to the bronze.  That match wasn’t as close as the score indicated (match is available at www.flowrestling.org).  However, Condon also beat 2x Virginia state champ Sam Rakes, the #2 seed here.  

The biggest obstacle for Cubberly will be Jared King of Virginia.  Though not yet a state champion, King owned two wins over Rakes last year, plus a 10-4 win over Kusar and a 9-2 win over Ohio State Runner-up Robel Campbell.   As a point of reference, however, Cubberly won the Super 32 as a junior in a weight class that King failed to place in.

One seeded wrestler that I think will have difficulty is Andrew Gasber, due to being severely out of weight class.  A 135 last year, it is my understanding that Gasber will be wrestling off Suba for the 145 spot in the near future.   Of course, Gasber may be the most dangerous wrestler in the state and nobody here wants to face him.  I’d look for Riley Kilroy to be a sure-fire placer with a chance to crack the top four, and think that Adam Hogue and James Mannier can place as well.  Mannier has emerged (unexpectedly from my perspective) from a nasty three-man battle at Graham for the starting spot (over Max Thomusseit and Kyle Ryan) so he is already battle-hardened.

OWS FINALS PROJECTION:  Eric Cubberly dec. Jared King 6-5

PROJECTED OHIO PLACEWINNERS:  Kilroy, Hogue, Mannier

IRONMAN 171 LB PREVIEW

For the sake of avoiding redundancy, I’m go to simply refer to you to a recently written article by this site that discussed this match-up and weight class in detail, go here:  http://www.ohiowrestlingsite.com/articles/article78.php and scroll to match-up #9.  Suffice it to say that this is an epic but, though one in which I think the final outcome is fairly certain.  For some reason, I think that this match- should it come to pass- will be one of those rare matches that wrestling fans are talking about many years from now.

I would also add that this that Nick Mills (D-II #1) will be one of the improved wrestler in this state.  Mills has added a great deal of strength since last year to go with his excellent quickness and technique.  He runs straight into a freight train in Brian Roddy in the quarters but I can see him cracking the top four here.  Zac Thomusseit (Graham, D-II #2) is an underrated wrestler and has the potential to slow down and frustrate Roddy and Phillips with his leverage just as he did Jason Welch, Colt Sponseller, and Sean Nemec last year. 

The most underseeded wrestler in this weight is Justin Armstrong of Bishop Lynch.  Look for the #15 seed to give Peltier a tough go on Friday night.   The key for Phillips against Peltier will be whether he can get off the bottom, a big “if”.  I think he is clearly superior on his feet to the Blair wrestler.   Roth was outstanding at the Super 32, we will see if he can continue to wrestle at that level this weekend, if so, he may be your Division II state champ.  Working out with Cubberly and Foster every day has to help.

OWS FINALS PROJECTION:  BRIAN RODDY DEC. CHRIS PHILLIPS 13-8

PROJECTED OHIO PLACEWINNERS: Nick Mills, Zach Thomusseit, Keith Witt (D-II #3) Evan Roth (D-II #4)

(above): If Foster is "on" this weekend at Ironman he will be very tough for even Cody Magrum to beat. Photo Credit, Bob Tuneberg, Villager News.

IRONMAN 189 PREVIEW

SEEDED WRESTLERS
1. Cody Magrum (Oak Harbor, D-II #1)
3. Max Huntley (CO)
4. Jeremy Foster (Eastwood, D-II #2)
5. Nick Lloyd (WI)
6. Kevin Bailey (Walsh Jesuit, D-II #3)
7. Ben Krakower (Blair Academy)
8. Dan Grimes (IL)
9. Ryan Nelisse (Elyria, D-I #5)
10. Nathan Jones (Troy Christian, D-III #1)
12. Max Thomusseit (Graham, D-II #14)
14. Julian Rosen (University School, D-II #15)

The million-dollar question is which Jeremy Foster will show up?  The one who pinned Dustin Kilgore, major-decisioned Cody Magrum and won handily against David Thompson and Aaron Popham?  Or the one who showed up at Beast of the East and State his sophomore year, and in the state semis versus Thompson last year?   Consistency has always been the issue for Foster- without question one of the most gifted wrestlers in this state athletically.  Strong, fast, and with an ability to scramble that is very atypical of upperweights, the only question is whether he can put it all together between his ears, so to speak.  Really, I have no idea which Foster will show up, but I’m going with the red-hot version of Foster to sweep through Lloyd, Magrum, and Budi in consecutive order. 

OSU-bound Cody Magrum is clearly one of the best big men in the nation at this point.  Already a two-time state champion, Magrum may be the most technically sound upperweight in Ohio.  He owns a 7-5 win over Foster their sophomore year and could easily be the champ here.  Joe Budi of Wisconsin was an unbeaten state champ who came within a win over All-American status in Fargo.  He also defeated Jeremy Foster in a wild back and forth bout at that tournament.  However, last year was Foster’s first year of freestyle, and with Foster’s consistency issues, a prior loss is almost meaningless.  As the tournament progresses, look for Magrum, Budi, and Foster (should he bring his A-game) to establish themselves as the top three competitors in this weight- really, I contemplated all three as my projected champion here.  Historically, my predictions have been the “kiss of death” for Foster, and whenever I rate him low, he excels, so probably the best bet is on Magrum.

I see two other Ohio Wrestlers cracking the top eight.  Nathan Jones of Troy Christian (a 2006 state place-winner at Sidney) is ranked #1 in Division III and I look for him to have a banner year.  Kevin Bailey was last year’s “rags to riches” story going from a losing season in 2006 to a fourth place state finish that was highlighted by a win over 2x state champion John Weakley).  State placer Max Thomusseit moves up from 130 to 189 after losing his wrestle-off at 160 to James Mannier.  Ryan Nelisse is a former junior high state champion who missed most of last year after a solid freshman year.  I really have no idea what to expect of him here, but the talent is certainly there.

OWS FINALS PROJECTION: JEREMY FOSTER DEC. JOE BUDI 13-10

PROJECTED OHIO PLACEWINNERS: Cody Magrum, Nathan Jones, Kevin Bailey.

IRONMAN 215 PREVIEW

SEEDED WRESTLERS
1. Matt Fisher (Sandusky Perkins, D-II #2)
2. Trever Spude (WI)
3. Matt Lindamood (WV)
4. Nick Zissimos (CO)
5. John Weber (VA)
6. Ross Quehl (Cincinnati Moeller, D-I #5)
7. Jake Hanley (TX)
8. Logan White (St. Paris Graham, D-II #7)
9. Mike Green (St. Edward, D-I #9)
12. Jordan Richards (Wadsworth, D-I #16)

Quite frankly, I have less idea here than at any other weight.  The field here does not even resemble a typical Ironman field.   As far as I can tell, Matt Fisher and Lindamood are the class of the weight, but I would not be surprised to see someone unknown come out of the field.  Fisher is of course a two-time state runner-up, currently, ranked #2 (maybe, like Ty Mitch, more like “1b”).  Fisher is a former NHSCA Sophomore National Champ and a solid title favorite here I think.  While we have weights with state champions pulling the #12 seed in the lightweights, no other wrestler placed higher than 5th at their state tournament last year.  Lindamood was state runner-up in West Virginia as a sophomore but injured last year- he may be much better than I realize.

The real story here may be the window of opportunity this weak weight class opens up for Graham.  189 and 215 are clearly the weak links in the mighty Graham lineup (it should be noted that weak link is relative to the rest of the lineup-White is a great sophomore at this weight and Thomusseit is an outstanding wrestler who happens to be up two if not three weights from his optimal weight class), but in a field that is extremely weak for Ironman, Logan White can pick up some unexpected points for Graham here in their quest to topple Blair. 

I’d look for Quehl to place here.  Still comtemplating a move to 189, Quehl is undersized at this weight but is quick for a wrestler of his size.

OWS FINALS PROJECTION:  FISHER DEC. LINDAMOOD 5-3

PROJECTED OHIO PLACEWINNERS:  Ross Quehl, Logan White

IRONMAN 285 PREVIEW

Like 215, a much weaker weight than most.  However, the news isn’t all bad.  Look for Garrett Goebel, possibly the nation’s beat heavyweight (though he won’t ever get the #1 ranking due to lack of Fargo) to dominate.  Last year Goebel handled Big Frank Becker of Moeller (fall with a very large lead) and Ben Kuhar of St. Edward.   I like #2 seed Adam Walls of Graham here (D-II #2) but frankly I think Nick Cook of Virginia is the second best at this weight. Fortunately for Walls (and Graham), Cook pulls the #4 seed so he will be on Goebel’s side.   The #3 seed is a wrestler who finished 7th at Ironman last year to Walls 4th.  The other two seeded wrestlers are Ohio competitors- James Meder (Valley Forge, D-I #5) and Jeremy Johnson (Brecksville, D-I #8), respectively- that Walls will be heavily favored to beat, so look for Walls to advance to the finals. 

Meder and Johnson are both juniors with bright futures ahead of them.  Meder was a rare sophomore state qualifier at heavyweight and has added a great deal of size and strength since last year.  Johnson failed to advance out of Districts last year, but has since achieved All-American status at the NHSCA Sophomore Nationals, FILA Cadet Nationals, and the Cadet Nationals in Fargo.  You will here a lot out of both of these young men in the future.

OWS FINALS PROJECTION: Garrett Goebel dec. Adam Walls 7-0

PROJECTED OHIO PLACEWINNERS: James Meder, Jeremy Johnso.n

TEAM RACE

With Blair and Graham ranked #1 and #2, and this being their only meeting of the year, the national title will be decided for all intents and purposes at the Ironman this weekend.  Here’s how I see the comparison between the Blair and Graham lineups:

103- Nick Brascetta vs. Evan Silver: Silver by decision 3-0 (Blair)
112- David Taylor vs. Sean Boyle:  Taylor by decision 3-3
119- Zach Neibert vs. Tony Buxton: Neibert by major decision: 7-3 (Graham)
125- Tucker Armstrong vs. Chris Villalonga: Villalonga by decision 7-6 (Graham)
130- Brian Stephens vs. Anthony Valles:  Stephens by decision 10-6 (Graham)
135- Mark Meyer vs. Austin Ornsbee: Ornsbee by major decision 10-10
140-Matt Stephens vs. John Guzzo: Guzzo by dec. (Guzzo beat him last year) 13-10 Blair
145- Ben Jordan vs. Mario Mason: Mason by dec. 16-10 (Blair)
152: Coby Boyd vs.Jesse Shanaman: Boyd by fall. 16-16 (Blair)
160: James Mannier vs. Adam Hogue: Hogue by decision 19-16 (Blair)
171:  Zac Thomusseit vs. Corey Peltier: Peltier by decision 22-16 (Blair)
189-  Max Thomusseit vs. Ben Krakower: Krakower by major decision 26-16 (Blair)
215- Logan White vs. Steven Hanzlik: White by decision 26-19 (Blair)
285- Adam Walls vs. Kyle Hanson: Walls by decision 26-22 (Blair)

It’s been said that Graham lost the national title when Nathan Jones went to Troy Christian rather than transferring to Graham as rumored.  That may be true, but the bottom line is that these two teams are neck and neck, the title is there for the taking- for a Graham team that graduates only two seniors (Jordan and Boyd) and adds a plethora of middle school talent (read: Felipe Martinez).

Finally, as many of you know, Walsh will be updating live via the boutboard (a great value for $5, sign up at the www.walshironman.com site).  However, OWS will also be providing Live Updates of key matches, obviously I cannot updates ten matches at a time as they can but there will be a detailed breakdown of key matchups starting with Friday evening’s 2nd round.  Stay tuned!

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